Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae3d96ed833633451e189065a656aa6628563031fe21982863214246b726124e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 1c | 2,759$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,091$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 10c | 1,691$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 11c | 1,620$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 3c | 1,619$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…234dbacked No | 28c | 1,092$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed No | 4c | 999.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 897.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 75c | 736.47$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 15c | 677.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 17c | 604.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 3c | 518$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 9c | 505$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 43c | 501.25$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.74 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked No | 3c | 444.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 56c | 400$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 4c | 394.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 8c | 387.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 54c | 363.4$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 14c | 350$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 337$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed No | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 69c | 279.05$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 47c | 265.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 74c | 264.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…2503backed No | 6c | 258.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 40c | 247.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 33c | 245$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 8c | 222.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 36c | 201.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 199.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 51c | 194.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed No | 43c | 174.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…44c5backed No | 29c | 88.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 39c | 81.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 42c | 74.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 73c | 68.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…2b67backed No | 59c | 68.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 50c | 67.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf701…5d7abacked Yes | 42c | 60.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 36c | 54.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…b978backed Yes | 64c | 46.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 77c | 37.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…f46dbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 54c | 29.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc85…4d43backed Yes | 56c | 28.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.