World Politics · resolved market
Trump tariffs on Canada in effect by May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed2d5142cb7bfdcb1ecdec342d73697d5d61b3ed5ab21c52cb34ed41b9b0a41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 52c | 5,299$2,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 3,954$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.78 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…ce48backed No | 8c | 2,950$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 35c | 2,830$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.06 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked Yes | 36c | 2,350$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 2,201$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…9056backed Yes | 66c | 2,003$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5410backed No | 40c | 1,926$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 35c | 1,250$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed No | 8c | 1,249$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 66c | 1,212$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.02 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 59c | 1,195$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.11 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…d6adbacked No | 20c | 1,176$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 60c | 1,009$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.37 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…5e71backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 37c | 914.44$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.44 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 29c | 877.02$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.25 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked No | 6c | 782.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 73c | 761$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.91 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 60c | 753.91$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.35 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd294…4786backed No | 70c | 660.85$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 10c | 625.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 35c | 583$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.77 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes | 79c | 543.73$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 539.39$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.15 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 48c | 504.17$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 44c | 498.25$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.81 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 66c | 460$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 40c | 457$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 11c | 452.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…e149backed No | 64c | 407.72$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 39c | 400$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…06b0backed No | 48c | 390.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.52 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 65c | 385.67$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 68c | 380.28$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 61c | 327.31$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…c8abbacked No | 47c | 320$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 71c | 312.2$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 25c | 302.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…53bcbacked No | 54c | 290$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…f028backed No | 27c | 274.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 271.51$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 62c | 259.47$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…abc9backed No | 37c | 256.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…070abacked No | 40c | 248.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…7737backed Yes | 58c | 245.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 20c | 241.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1cd9backed No | 40c | 237.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 65c | 234.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 43c | 234.93$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 40c | 222$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 42c | 209$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 39c | 199.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 20c | 195.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 22c | 193.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 59c | 169.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed No | 71c | 169.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 19c | 168.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…3bc1backed Yes | 54c | 163.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 69c | 162.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 152.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…7ad1backed Yes | 66c | 152.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes | 63c | 150.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d5…3a9cbacked No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…79fcbacked Yes | 76c | 131.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 39c | 126.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 32cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 126.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…0822backed No | 38c | 106.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 80c | 102.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7e…f534backed No | 34c | 101.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 33c | 100.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…b65cbacked Yes | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…aba0backed No | 66c | 91.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e9…0801backed No | 43c | 81.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb480…f5babacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43b…ac08backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…9d2dbacked Yes | 67c | 74.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x541f…0130backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…910abacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…af5fbacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…3b24backed No | 37c | 55.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc0…64eebacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 58cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…60cdbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.