TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Trump tariffs on Canada in effect by May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,519 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes52c5,299$2,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.61944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes47c3,954$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.7854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed No8c2,950$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No35c2,830$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.063542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked Yes36c2,350$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No7c2,201$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1520614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed Yes66c2,003$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.911656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442b…5410backed No40c1,926$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No35c1,250$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.59750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fa…a8c1backed No8c1,249$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes66c1,212$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.027238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes59c1,195$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.114037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87db…d6adbacked No20c1,176$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No60c1,009$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.3727828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+291.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed Yes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No37c914.44$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.443737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No29c877.02$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.257424.3%18 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked No6c782.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.262429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes73c761$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.915244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No60c753.91$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.357254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd294…4786backed No70c660.85$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No10c625.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.655817.2%10 W · 48 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes35c583$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.772828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes79c543.73$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.252035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No57c539.39$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No48c504.17$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.783020%6 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No44c498.25$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.815653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes66c460$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.43357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes40c457$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+50.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No11c452.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9613118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8700…e149backed No64c407.72$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No39c400$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.282846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed No14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-54.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed No48c390.82$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.522352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes65c385.67$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.465754.4%31 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No68c380.28$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.44045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No61c327.31$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.292931%9 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41e4…c8abbacked No47c320$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.651136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes71c312.2$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.413537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed No25c302.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b62…53bcbacked No54c290$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78b3…f028backed No27c274.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+130.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c271.51$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.541,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No62c259.47$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.127345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a4…abc9backed No37c256.91$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…070abacked No40c248.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…7737backed Yes58c245.57$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.931050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No20c241.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.474630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3585…1cd9backed No40c237.29$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes65c234.98$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.091758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No43c234.93$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.023135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes40c222$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.25135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes42c209$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.221442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.53221.9%7 W · 25 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-58.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6fb…e73abacked No61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No39c199.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.820051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No20c195.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6411435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No22c193.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3910131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes59c169.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.921250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2378…a059backed No71c169.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed No19c168.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.84753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed No61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…3bc1backed Yes54c163.74$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes69c162.08$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.83161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c152.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.851,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8356…7ad1backed Yes66c152.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+62.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes63c150.22$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.291030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d5…3a9cbacked No25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No61c147.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902850%14 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…79fcbacked Yes76c131.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.24850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes39c126.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.752352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick32cpaid+85.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No47c126.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2020…0822backed No38c106.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes80c102.98$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.93056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a7e…f534backed No34c101.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No33c100.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3115237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb175…b65cbacked Yes66c98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.323100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20f7…aba0backed No66c91.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05e9…0801backed No43c81.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb480…f5babacked No22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes38c78.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.951643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa43b…ac08backed No64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb720…9d2dbacked Yes67c74.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.84540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Yes72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.576741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x541f…0130backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a2…910abacked Yes38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c14…af5fbacked Yes73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f7…3b24backed No37c55.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed No70c55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No32c53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.144042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc0…64eebacked No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7737…e497backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.55532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick58cpaid+78.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x540f…60cdbacked Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.