AI · resolved market
Will Trump post about Sam Altman by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b935e8e571afa5e1c12960078150db22f4bd74730a4e14bf5ce3fa491239740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 2c | 6,790$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 1c | 4,923$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Yes | 5c | 4,247$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 5c | 2,854$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,929$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,927$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 1c | 799.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 9c | 550$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc74…118ebacked Yes | 10c | 525.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 16c | 334.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 5c | 326$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed Yes | 7c | 299.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…41a2backed Yes | 11c | 283.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…3b25backed Yes | 9c | 240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f35…8fecbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 8c | 131.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 8c | 129.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…cb16backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d6d5backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 21c | 102.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 25c | 99.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 13c | 98.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…3fd9backed Yes | 12c | 83.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 26c | 42.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +1,611.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 74c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.