NBA · resolved market
Will Stephen Curry Return This Series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f11b45265275002c23672f7cdc027e233bc1c1401d34aac07361b88df55e0c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 16c | 11,178$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.4 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,665$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 16c | 4,610$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.84 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…c18abacked Yes | 51c | 1,975$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 40c | 1,836$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.34 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…52d3backed No | 45c | 1,478$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 71c | 1,463$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.89 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 20c | 1,402$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.47 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0292…4211backed No | 80c | 1,191$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 76c | 855.05$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked No | 50c | 597.84$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.95 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 543.19$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.1 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…204ebacked No | 60c | 516.16$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…0a7ebacked No | 28c | 502.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 43c | 500$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 57c | 489.73$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 57c | 488.25$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 78c | 454.31$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.71 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 43c | 439.7$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 41c | 414.34$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…1ab8backed Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 67c | 395.25$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.46 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 44c | 335$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.95 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 35c | 321.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.49 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 260$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 33c | 260$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked No | 24c | 230$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 76c | 210.7$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 196.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 73c | 190$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 22c | 179.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 30c | 159.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 134.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…1c3fbacked Yes | 68c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400b…3160backed No | 73c | 120.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…b266backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…2825backed Yes | 78c | 115.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 75c | 107.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 173 | 26.6%46 W · 127 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 25c | 100.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…6faabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…d174backed Yes | 20c | 99.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a59…3a1abacked Yes | 80c | 76.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked No | 56c | 72.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 43c | 66.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…dbdcbacked Yes | 78c | 66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed Yes | 66c | 60.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 29c | 58.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…50c5backed Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 48.4%191 W · 204 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…5104backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a30…22f1backed No | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…a593backed Yes | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…0c12backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…1063backed Yes | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…77d1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…f61bbacked Yes | 75c | 15.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.