TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Jalen Williams win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,626 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c14,602$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.031550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes0c9,773$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.572615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-75.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes0c7,485$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c6,829$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.321978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c4,199$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.872130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes7c2,290$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.571,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes6c1,590$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.289338.7%36 W · 57 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+91.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ffe…335cbacked No48c1,300$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…c31abacked No47c1,300$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9840…7189backed Yes53c1,300$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb4…d478backed Yes52c1,300$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca4…1bb0backed No50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…9c20backed Yes50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf78…e99bbacked No50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…ae5ebacked Yes50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes16c740.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0722750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes44c565.75$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes15c403$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes26c330$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.52532%8 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf943…a83abacked No75c254.2$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.551250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes18c227.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.586113.1%8 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No64c225.71$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1524549%120 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda0…3ad2backed Yes38c217.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes18c214.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.366113.1%8 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes36c163.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1918536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7022…1252backed Yes16c140$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd1…6191backed Yes15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbc…3d38backed Yes21c123.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51c8…3ed6backed No66c108.29$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5224…a664backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes28c100.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4634246.8%160 W · 182 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes25c100.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1223438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec4…669abacked No66c93.73$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92fd…a619backed No76c86.94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35d…c9cdbacked Yes22c84.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35cc…f26fbacked No66c84.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b3…67febacked Yes25c76.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb25…6617backed Yes38c68.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c0…d06cbacked Yes40c61.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0686…dbfabacked Yes25c56.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7351…fddabacked Yes22c55.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed Yes24c55.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.247538.7%29 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked Yes34c53.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.27560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x342a…13cdbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa706…9363backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d7…e44ebacked No77c51.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x623a…2edebacked No75c50.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.67966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+53.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c49.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0526048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes25c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1981…b017backed Yes44c46.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.46520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa367…d1c9backed No78c45.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87fa…6094backed No76c44.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ff…a502backed Yes52c42.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ce…850ebacked No76c39.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…b07dbacked Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa3…62cabacked No78c36.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44c…81ffbacked No76c33.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa90d…cfc4backed No78c32.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b11…264dbacked No78c30.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…67ccbacked No78c27.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c00…e361backed Yes55c27.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3f…15fabacked No56c25.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No60c25.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.282462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4957…ef2abacked Yes56c24.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5611…8316backed No56c20.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe1…aa4abacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0fb…5e61backed No78c19.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick65cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…9aaebacked No78c19.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df0…36dbbacked No78c19.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd9…4c31backed No78c17.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+49.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2b…62d2backed No78c15.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.31850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf58…0c47backed No78c13.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.