NBA · resolved market
Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6aa2586cf605ea29de0620316ec6eb6b86ee47def2da4fbd14a15680ffb2c85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $607,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $809,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $607,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 25,189$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 0c | 13,663$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,623$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…045fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 9,386$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 197 | 8.6%17 W · 180 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…9b24backed Yes | 0c | 3,573$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 1c | 2,810$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +370.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,444$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…bf85backed Yes | 3c | 729.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +18.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 15c | 421.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 5c | 217$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 209.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…ddcdbacked Yes | 17c | 70.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?this page
- Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Christian Braun win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?Yes won
- Will Franz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Jaden Ivey win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Jalen Williams win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Norman Powell win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Peyton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.