TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,479,087
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,114,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,479,087 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c30,100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.31550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes0c13,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c12,515$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.031978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c11,577$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.242130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdf…66bdbacked Yes4c7,409$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.27616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c4…8d95backed Yes4c4,781$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb465…cca8backed Yes4c4,769$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee35…9549backed Yes4c4,249$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.58520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc1…7ae6backed Yes4c3,909$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b1…7c0bbacked Yes4c3,693$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd435…f65ebacked Yes4c3,482$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a66…e87dbacked Yes4c3,377$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x240c…9194backed Yes4c3,143$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.22714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x646b…25dabacked Yes4c3,143$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8390%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x478e…9100backed Yes4c3,043$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a1…bdebbacked Yes4c3,037$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4077…37d2backed Yes4c2,926$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddcd…3d8ebacked Yes4c2,821$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.71616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96db…8a6dbacked Yes4c2,505$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2809…005cbacked Yes3c2,492$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6660%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28c…1677backed Yes4c2,492$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b38…ebb4backed Yes4c2,487$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cc…00a7backed Yes4c2,482$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0530…f1cabacked Yes4c2,472$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x139d…5d66backed Yes4c2,472$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc8…f325backed Yes4c2,072$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5517…f587backed Yes4c2,072$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc669…b310backed Yes4c2,066$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.34616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91c0…8b60backed Yes4c2,060$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c6…89efbacked Yes4c2,060$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00be…0747backed Yes4c2,060$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6f…8f4bbacked Yes4c2,055$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8109…808cbacked Yes4c2,036$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1880%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b44…d0c6backed Yes4c1,634$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.78425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4769…21a2backed Yes4c1,627$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.73616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x445a…218dbacked Yes4c1,627$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x218a…4061backed Yes4c1,627$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb8…0d48backed Yes4c1,627$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ff…c194backed Yes4c1,332$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.06616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6c…f390backed Yes4c1,299$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ba…ccdabacked Yes4c1,246$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x787a…4224backed Yes3c1,236$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24cd…bacebacked Yes4c1,236$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aeb…7a4cbacked Yes4c1,236$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb741…15e4backed Yes4c1,200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ab…8b23backed Yes4c1,188$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x360f…cb3dbacked Yes4c1,150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5e…d23abacked Yes4c1,110$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec4…5ad2backed Yes4c999$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-80.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b9…37ddbacked Yes4c948$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x687e…991abacked Yes4c918$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6397…aa3cbacked Yes4c908$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.36728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c891.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.35586.9%4 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x147a…ac27backed Yes4c888$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.74714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74a…021dbacked Yes4c872$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+43.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f2…7173backed Yes4c864$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625c…4729backed Yes4c834$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-80.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0822…5f0fbacked Yes4c834$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f05…8150backed Yes4c827$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab8…03c3backed Yes3c824$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2871…51e1backed Yes3c824$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85d…46d2backed Yes4c824$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.84520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-75%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d16…1a17backed Yes4c824$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d1…b8e4backed Yes4c824$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f9…03b4backed Yes4c824$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23df…66e4backed Yes4c797$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0150…56f8backed Yes3c786$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe2…5da8backed Yes4c777$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7260%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d8d0backed Yes4c777$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb6…c63fbacked Yes4c716$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4170%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa5…3607backed Yes4c716$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46e2…a4f7backed Yes4c706$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40fb…54cebacked Yes4c696$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.03616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78fb…02f5backed Yes4c696$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74d9…ade2backed Yes4c696$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+69.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1708…a01dbacked Yes4c696$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9838…bab7backed Yes3c696$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8650…9399backed Yes4c666$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc817…3f2cbacked Yes4c666$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.09520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ef4…46b3backed Yes4c666$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe791…d18dbacked Yes3c655$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ea…d5e7backed Yes3c655$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf394…00b2backed Yes4c625$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6e…2ee1backed Yes4c595$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb18e…a1bebacked Yes4c575$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e4…d87cbacked Yes4c565$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6180%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa85f…88eebacked Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4d…1958backed Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.270%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca99…6bd1backed Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3155…8657backed Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2890…b4c8backed Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba8…587dbacked Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3180%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9a7…16f7backed Yes3c555$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+77.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0795…634bbacked Yes3c524$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1895…a29fbacked Yes3c524$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf12…16f8backed Yes3c524$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe79e…e6b8backed Yes3c524$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e19…ab86backed Yes3c524$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc88…e5b0backed Yes3c524$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.