TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$489,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,718 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c34,971$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.211550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes1c26,287$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+370.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes0c21,694$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.69100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c18,138$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.572130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes0c6,001$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249516.8%16 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Yes27c4,074$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.772241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x663e…61c8backed Yes0c3,011$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes26c2,593$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.128324.1%20 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x371b…ebffbacked Yes14c966.87$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c809.43$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4118536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13ff…6599backed Yes31c701.34$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc22…ee03backed Yes31c644.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004647.8%22 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a87…dd55backed Yes31c602.13$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes15c587.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…6bdbbacked Yes28c523$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf943…a83abacked Yes19c500.69$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.111250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b02…39e6backed Yes33c453.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No74c441$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.88933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-47.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88a2…7bbabacked Yes28c424.67$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes3c404.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.251,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes34c398.11$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d98…27debacked Yes31c319.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8a…744cbacked No79c302$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0035…ed77backed Yes31c300.47$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes22c292.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.76539.4%5 W · 48 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick12cpaid+11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228a…2ed0backed Yes34c290$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x045e…baa1backed Yes32c282.19$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes33c281$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes13c258.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7422750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0941…8c50backed Yes21c233$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d1…855cbacked Yes33c222$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c214.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6526048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6683…caa1backed Yes21c206$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d2…8775backed Yes26c198.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes22c186.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.926113.1%8 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf0…fd3abacked Yes12c176.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225127.5%14 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabae…c31bbacked Yes26c151.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93d…b1ecbacked Yes21c151$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6879…ccabbacked No79c151$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…b225backed No79c151$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes28c149.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9940448.3%195 W · 209 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ad…47a3backed No79c146$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4a…8b10backed Yes21c143$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d1c…1327backed Yes21c142$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe300…f35dbacked No79c141$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf80…b992backed Yes17c139.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf816…abf3backed Yes28c138.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes11c137.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.135230.8%16 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…1f8dbacked No79c132$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebae…7a90backed No79c131$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886f…ebefbacked No79c129$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.373100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+55.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4324…9971backed Yes29c128.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7080…f28fbacked No79c125$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb2…fc1dbacked No79c124$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x541e…6505backed Yes21c124$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf79…b94abacked Yes25c122.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a74…8397backed No79c119$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e67…3d5dbacked Yes21c119$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…2360backed No79c119$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25f…3674backed Yes25c113.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd049…7b05backed Yes27c112$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff2…e8bdbacked No79c110$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…151fbacked No76c108.48$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.513100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ea…0e52backed Yes18c101.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…3f30backed Yes21c101$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e3…0f87backed No79c101$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e6…5c8abacked Yes21c101$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d6…bd20backed No79c101$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed8…ac7dbacked Yes25c100.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.36771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d07…9793backed Yes25c96.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb37…446fbacked Yes21c93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7b…abe4backed Yes27c92.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…a0babacked Yes20c91.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes22c91.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8856…3950backed Yes25c87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No80c84.3$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8618246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a57…d55dbacked Yes28c84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c9…0e77backed Yes29c83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8194…384cbacked Yes31c82.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd69…1c23backed No76c81.51$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfec0…cf75backed Yes21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa19…b95bbacked No74c79.96$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+128.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42b…f81ebacked Yes27c79.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108a…7afebacked Yes22c78.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee2f…6c1bbacked Yes38c75.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5222…10b2backed Yes36c74.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.04650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b09…58d8backed Yes28c74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea8…b814backed Yes22c73.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x968d…57f2backed Yes21c73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x769d…421dbacked Yes23c70.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…67ccbacked Yes26c70.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd11…852bbacked Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x578e…c60ebacked No79c67.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.25366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e8…8613backed Yes28c66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7adb…5a9bbacked Yes21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a8…d800backed Yes21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4926…0435backed Yes21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d5d…f94abacked No74c64.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb3…1c46backed Yes30c64.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x776d…e4abbacked Yes34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.