TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Franz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,229,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$398,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,229,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes0c28,096$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.19100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c27,600$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c15,807$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.992130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes0c11,340$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.439516.8%16 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa706…9363backed Yes1c5,871$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24cd…bacebacked Yes3c2,368$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed No59c2,250$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes41c2,020$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.81822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb7…6ac7backed Yes3c2,006$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9c08backed Yes3c1,993$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d16…1a17backed Yes3c1,993$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a49…83e0backed Yes2c1,825$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.563740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes4c1,667$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.051,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…0b6ebacked Yes3c1,603$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eda…ac99backed Yes3c1,588$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85d…46d2backed Yes3c1,575$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.31520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-75%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbff…33e6backed Yes4c1,463$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.55540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No63c1,384$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.4922750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4839…dd0fbacked Yes4c1,280$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x560e…cc15backed Yes4c1,254$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.39650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc7…f56cbacked Yes4c1,254$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c6…89efbacked Yes3c1,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.23714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a5…6ea8backed Yes3c1,185$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.95425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7260…4466backed Yes4c1,144$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00be…0747backed Yes3c1,144$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x896a…6507backed Yes4c1,071$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.34728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f0…94f3backed Yes4c1,045$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece3…ae6dbacked Yes4c1,045$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.84560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1240…9c9bbacked Yes4c961$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2996…0923backed Yes4c935$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.97650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c878.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35586.9%4 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c5…4b33backed Yes4c836$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.43650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8880…5514backed Yes4c825$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42e…dcefbacked Yes3c795$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc343…0e4dbacked Yes3c780$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x625c…4729backed Yes3c780$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-80.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x488d…de53backed Yes3c659$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6733…aae6backed Yes3c633$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2170…d2aabacked Yes4c627$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f26…b462backed Yes4c627$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes4c571.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.26539.4%5 W · 48 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick12cpaid+11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e61…d8b2backed Yes4c528$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1797…c001backed Yes4c528$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1254…215cbacked Yes4c517$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6b…71fbbacked Yes4c517$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.97450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd1…35f5backed Yes3c509$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3f84backed No59c480.35$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.951540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x139d…5d66backed Yes3c448$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e7…390abacked Yes3c418$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.96100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…29f0backed Yes4c418$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.04520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8295…1d84backed Yes4c418$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc817…3f2cbacked Yes4c418$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes33c414.11$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44e3…9ca2backed Yes3c413$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…2998backed Yes3c394$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3180…dac3backed Yes3c390$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-78.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe710…397bbacked Yes3c390$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6670%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…a353backed Yes4c343$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…c06ebacked Yes4c334$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.19911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c8…6926backed Yes4c319$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0354…350bbacked Yes4c319$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6c…5406backed Yes4c319$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…2f7fbacked Yes4c319$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ea…64a7backed Yes4c319$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x225b…66a9backed Yes4c319$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7362…c89cbacked Yes4c319$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c308.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.471,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff6…0727backed Yes4c308$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…73e1backed Yes4c308$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.09714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d0…aa80backed Yes4c308$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes32c217$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No62c76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.124549%120 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes38c66.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2518536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c51.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8213240.2%53 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes32c36.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.823438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.