World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x696ba4726b7a261960878b703c525857ba5a08ee7e1404aa83bd8faa1e1d8687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,726,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,165,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,726,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7992…48bfbacked Yes | 3c | 309,181$7,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,833.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 5c | 302,863$14,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,741 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 22c | 193,632$42,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,112.07 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes | 1c | 162,536$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 40c | 155,337$62,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,737.1 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 59c | 119,826$70,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,936.76 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…8a51backed Yes | 51c | 116,798$58,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,987.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 9c | 106,640$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,996.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 100,403$3,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,734.22 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 6c | 89,598$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 51c | 88,240$44,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,668.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 52c | 82,497$42,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,864.03 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 46c | 59,528$27,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,576.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…5133backed Yes | 57c | 56,081$31,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,923.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 56c | 53,661$30,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,179.21 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes | 28c | 53,567$14,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,950.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 30c | 52,935$15,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,873.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 52,894$14,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,762.99 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…49fabacked Yes | 4c | 52,110$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85c…4b42backed Yes | 60c | 51,060$30,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,806.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…87a8backed Yes | 30c | 45,815$13,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,903.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 60c | 45,652$27,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,170.43 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed Yes | 38c | 43,956$16,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,529.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 43,028$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.22 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 56c | 42,935$24,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,122.06 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…63d5backed Yes | 7c | 42,279$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 45c | 40,940$18,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,449.91 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 44c | 40,651$17,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,720.18 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…f0cbbacked Yes | 44c | 39,176$17,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,042.37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 8c | 38,093$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,088.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a21…ac9cbacked Yes | 64c | 38,002$24,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,461.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 59cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 50c | 36,796$18,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,461.49 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc34…8b32backed No | 36c | 36,003$12,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,041.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…9913backed Yes | 64c | 36,003$23,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,041.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 26c | 35,627$9,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,086.64 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 4c | 33,494$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 1c | 31,631$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 34c | 31,316$10,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,491.69 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…f646backed No | 59c | 30,000$17,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,357.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 65c | 29,751$19,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,220.14 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed No | 38c | 29,747$11,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,448.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…7ebbbacked No | 40c | 29,731$12,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,704.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11c…fe41backed Yes | 3c | 29,387$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 4c | 29,327$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…7921backed Yes | 64c | 29,174$18,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,794.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 56c | 28,758$16,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,203.45 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 49c | 28,230$13,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,790.02 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 75c | 27,832$20,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,010.32 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 2c | 27,462$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.97 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 43c | 27,359$11,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,703.26 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 46c | 26,801$12,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,217.55 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 9c | 26,567$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…8513backed Yes | 62c | 26,531$16,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,449.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…c16abacked No | 38c | 26,531$10,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,449.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 3c | 26,510$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…a7a2backed No | 35c | 26,500$9,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…e665backed Yes | 65c | 26,500$17,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…fe11backed Yes | 50c | 26,210$13,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,051.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 55c | 24,998$13,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,732.69 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…7f28backed Yes | 56c | 24,780$13,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,999.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 4c | 23,570$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.89 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed Yes | 44c | 23,544$10,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,258.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 2c | 23,126$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…6a98backed Yes | 66c | 23,117$15,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,200.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 22,189$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.65 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 59c | 22,024$12,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,981.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 24c | 21,817$5,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,320.59 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 30c | 21,643$6,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,589.8 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes | 59c | 19,786$11,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,678.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 20c | 19,635$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes | 60c | 18,922$11,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,438.67 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc604…a3ebbacked Yes | 0c | 18,430$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 30c | 18,314$5,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,451.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 4c | 17,981$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.32 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 17,952$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 11c | 17,824$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.28 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 17,524$7,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,378.98 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed No | 78c | 17,521$13,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,870.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 39c | 17,386$6,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,780.61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 45c | 17,009$7,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,408.85 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…3a15backed Yes | 4c | 16,775$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 61c | 16,304$10,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,019.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 17c | 16,288$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838.47 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…af2bbacked Yes | 5c | 15,807$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 2c | 15,398$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 36c | 15,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 57c | 14,941$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ef…f4c7backed Yes | 6c | 14,702$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…e5ddbacked Yes | 51c | 14,631$7,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,482.03 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 4c | 13,228$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 60c | 13,149$7,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,942.78 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 4c | 13,021$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked Yes | 66c | 12,331$8,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,138.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…f9febacked Yes | 2c | 11,770$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…f303backed Yes | 5c | 11,447$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…a051backed Yes | 6c | 11,394$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 59c | 11,263$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 43c | 10,977$4,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,311.02 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…44cfbacked No | 42c | 10,600$4,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,135.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 65c | 10,509$6,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,834.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?this page
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?Yes won
- Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.