World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14769e436a150dd79a62122626a45c5b6b872ac904b9eec55f5e970aeaab4784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,455,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,438,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,455,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 389 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 106,730$5,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,866.55 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…73c0backed Yes | 14c | 77,289$10,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,584.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…3d72backed Yes | 10c | 71,708$7,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,082.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 8c | 71,125$5,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,820.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…4c6fbacked Yes | 9c | 70,000$6,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,574.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…b068backed Yes | 10c | 67,419$6,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,826.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…8ac7backed Yes | 11c | 62,641$6,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,902.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…1076backed Yes | 10c | 33,799$3,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe55d…0c54backed Yes | 7c | 33,414$2,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 31,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…13d2backed Yes | 8c | 28,829$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…f43cbacked Yes | 8c | 27,804$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…533dbacked Yes | 10c | 27,047$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9e86backed Yes | 6c | 26,758$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…e353backed Yes | 7c | 25,600$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…b048backed Yes | 7c | 25,522$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…23d4backed Yes | 1c | 25,228$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 24,283$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.95 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 23,166$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.95 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…3bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 20,855$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 7c | 19,962$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…9721backed Yes | 7c | 19,615$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 12c | 18,942$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.23 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…5287backed Yes | 5c | 18,402$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…87b4backed Yes | 8c | 17,979$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3e9bbacked Yes | 8c | 17,775$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…1939backed Yes | 10c | 17,296$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed Yes | 10c | 16,982$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82e…ecaabacked Yes | 9c | 16,422$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d87…c2e9backed Yes | 7c | 15,295$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…f963backed Yes | 12c | 15,017$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…f3febacked Yes | 6c | 15,012$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…e1e3backed Yes | 10c | 14,836$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…7e28backed Yes | 7c | 14,320$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked Yes | 5c | 13,891$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…1b8ebacked Yes | 8c | 13,678$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…c20bbacked Yes | 12c | 13,137$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6e…044bbacked Yes | 10c | 12,813$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 1c | 12,757$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07a…c1e2backed Yes | 6c | 12,169$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…bd91backed Yes | 10c | 12,067$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 13c | 11,844$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…8293backed Yes | 6c | 10,949$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…09f3backed Yes | 4c | 10,844$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13be…80fbbacked Yes | 3c | 10,554$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 0c | 9,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 6c | 9,783$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 9,654$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.55 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d15…d7c6backed Yes | 7c | 9,596$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…36a2backed Yes | 9c | 9,520$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5d…f94dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,519$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…44cfbacked Yes | 6c | 8,452$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 8c | 8,377$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…9e15backed Yes | 7c | 8,330$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…203cbacked Yes | 7c | 8,224$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 13c | 8,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…8dd7backed Yes | 5c | 7,332$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe431…6071backed Yes | 5c | 7,138$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…dd8fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,978$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…15a5backed Yes | 5c | 6,944$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…9285backed Yes | 9c | 6,665$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…8534backed Yes | 13c | 6,476$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62aa…b241backed Yes | 11c | 6,463$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 8c | 6,207$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…9bd3backed Yes | 6c | 6,177$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…aab8backed Yes | 12c | 6,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…3f00backed Yes | 8c | 5,790$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…82f4backed Yes | 12c | 5,530$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…85babacked Yes | 6c | 5,470$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…c60abacked Yes | 7c | 5,461$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…e5ffbacked Yes | 7c | 5,458$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206d…949abacked Yes | 6c | 5,355$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d6…1370backed Yes | 8c | 5,336$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 10c | 5,311$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…d0cfbacked Yes | 9c | 5,191$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…6c49backed Yes | 8c | 5,153$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 8c | 4,988$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 0c | 4,694$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 4,612$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.17 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…df67backed Yes | 7c | 4,489$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed Yes | 5c | 4,481$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…8db2backed Yes | 7c | 4,455$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…77d6backed Yes | 6c | 4,391$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…383dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,344$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…8193backed Yes | 1c | 4,295$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,245$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…5525backed Yes | 7c | 4,229$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d0…c4a5backed Yes | 6c | 4,205$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,132$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…dc43backed Yes | 6c | 3,985$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,838$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.79 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 8c | 3,834$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.2 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,813$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…4ebdbacked Yes | 13c | 3,797$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 7c | 3,750$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…77dfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,689$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…7717backed Yes | 6c | 3,574$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…b152backed Yes | 9c | 3,432$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,425$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?this page
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?Yes won
- Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.