World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f9be5aafa49f68294e14e03dfb0c4b35e4e5304f41c30140942e2ddf3711ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,087,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,506,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,087,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b64…b068backed Yes | 17c | 66,407$11,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,206.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 51,340$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.53 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…6c94backed Yes | 2c | 47,351$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes | 14c | 46,350$6,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,549.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…79eabacked Yes | 17c | 43,266$7,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,147.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 34,418$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9e86backed Yes | 17c | 32,892$5,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,632.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…5525backed Yes | 18c | 32,617$5,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,782.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 14c | 26,318$3,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,716.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…886fbacked Yes | 17c | 25,694$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 1c | 24,856$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.53 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c53…bb8abacked Yes | 14c | 21,573$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…07d6backed Yes | 8c | 21,428$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…aab8backed Yes | 14c | 21,058$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…6cbdbacked Yes | 8c | 19,262$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 7c | 18,123$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…44c4backed Yes | 4c | 17,440$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 12c | 16,000$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f0…10efbacked Yes | 20c | 15,203$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…79ffbacked Yes | 3c | 15,115$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 15c | 14,867$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,191.7 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 3c | 14,503$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.39 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…bd91backed Yes | 16c | 14,412$2,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,326.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 16c | 14,239$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.26 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…dd8fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,641$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes | 4c | 13,337$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe03…eba5backed Yes | 16c | 13,098$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…13d2backed Yes | 14c | 12,854$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 17c | 11,958$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed Yes | 14c | 11,749$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 15c | 10,396$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.43 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…9b4dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,371$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 16c | 10,122$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.89 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…87b4backed Yes | 14c | 10,032$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…ba11backed Yes | 4c | 9,911$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 14c | 9,738$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.39 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…9285backed Yes | 15c | 9,488$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62aa…b241backed Yes | 8c | 9,185$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55d…0c54backed Yes | 16c | 9,070$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 17c | 9,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…c20bbacked Yes | 16c | 8,694$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 13c | 8,520$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 1c | 8,500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…9d1ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,366$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…6b92backed Yes | 25c | 7,465$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…3cd7backed Yes | 14c | 7,323$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…8793backed Yes | 17c | 7,262$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 1c | 7,235$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…22bebacked Yes | 7c | 7,106$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…36a2backed Yes | 15c | 7,099$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 17c | 6,787$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 16c | 6,776$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.65 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked Yes | 17c | 6,680$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 25c | 6,598$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 15c | 6,584$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…f43cbacked Yes | 14c | 6,442$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…5446backed Yes | 4c | 6,369$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 13c | 6,259$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 13c | 6,092$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,063$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes | 17c | 6,019$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13be…80fbbacked Yes | 13c | 5,582$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 13c | 5,481$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.49 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…b5a4backed Yes | 2c | 5,292$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…a9a4backed Yes | 2c | 5,100$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…9c96backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…7cd6backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…dc43backed Yes | 15c | 4,833$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 3c | 4,651$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 2c | 4,532$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…e189backed Yes | 7c | 4,479$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,295$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.33 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…6b88backed Yes | 1c | 4,263$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…8203backed Yes | 16c | 4,070$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…0876backed Yes | 17c | 4,003$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…560fbacked Yes | 16c | 4,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 17c | 4,000$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.89 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 17c | 4,000$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.72 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 18c | 3,967$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…3bcbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,906$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…24abbacked Yes | 15c | 3,881$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…82f4backed Yes | 18c | 3,751$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…aa13backed Yes | 15c | 3,700$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 16cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…7e28backed Yes | 21c | 3,700$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdc…dd7cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,495$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d87…c2e9backed Yes | 14c | 3,494$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c62…df09backed Yes | 17c | 3,492$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…d431backed Yes | 12c | 3,422$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5883…0763backed Yes | 15c | 3,410$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…7717backed Yes | 14c | 3,365$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…1ababacked Yes | 4c | 3,363$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4882…b907backed Yes | 7c | 3,324$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…8ac8backed Yes | 15c | 3,284$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…af76backed Yes | 7c | 3,015$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…041ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,973$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…0a5fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,962$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d6…1370backed Yes | 16c | 2,764$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…50fbbacked Yes | 19c | 2,759$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?this page
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?Yes won
- Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.