World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34eec16d7b1ec5685cc0b2b40c6cdddcbb8b3b78c445f7989f00cb43af628f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,137,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $966,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,137,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 0c | 244,033$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.61 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 229,999$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 0c | 151,225$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 0c | 119,630$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e5…2f6fbacked Yes | 0c | 64,873$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 0c | 61,123$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.7 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 0c | 52,212$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…8db2backed Yes | 0c | 42,199$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 35,895$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 32,594$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82e…ecaabacked Yes | 1c | 23,140$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,001$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf218…abf4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…e1e3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…af2bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,458$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 13,074$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…dc43backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 0c | 12,965$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d5…88c5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 0c | 9,856$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 9,375$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 0c | 8,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 1c | 8,104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,863$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…af39backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 0c | 6,825$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes | 0c | 6,817$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13be…80fbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,207$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 0c | 5,332$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 2c | 5,067$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…d50ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 0c | 3,839$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…a601backed Yes | 1c | 3,774$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…0603backed Yes | 1c | 3,441$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…e17ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…5879backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?this page
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.