World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa90d2e947583a50964efe154c9e5464eeb71f49effc0d401a85649b2fcec6dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,811,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,295,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,811,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 605 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 4c | 199,988$8,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,144.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 88,917$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,681.16 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85c…4b42backed Yes | 72c | 70,417$50,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,632.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 21c | 60,751$12,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,829.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 71c | 54,832$39,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,705.36 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes | 28c | 52,200$14,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,333.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes | 75c | 50,638$38,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,536.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…fa07backed No | 0c | 36,209$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 22c | 30,165$6,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,677.01 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Yes | 31c | 29,302$9,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,166.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…2ff1backed No | 0c | 29,270$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 19c | 26,435$4,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,457.7 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 25,338$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.76 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…6a98backed Yes | 15c | 23,116$3,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,579.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 29c | 22,260$6,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,386.87 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…fa84backed Yes | 27c | 20,353$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,852.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…efc3backed Yes | 79c | 17,805$14,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 17c | 17,761$3,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,694.67 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed No | 3c | 17,598$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf601…f4cdbacked No | 0c | 17,550$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 17c | 17,108$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,256.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 70c | 16,961$11,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,059.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 55c | 15,799$8,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,186.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 20c | 15,426$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,379.16 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked No | 2c | 15,353$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 15c | 15,349$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,009.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…5525backed Yes | 26c | 14,417$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,616.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 65c | 14,261$9,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,979.04 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 23c | 13,243$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,143.45 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 62c | 13,055$8,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,911.65 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 19c | 12,924$2,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,444.65 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9e86backed Yes | 23c | 12,025$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,237.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5c…6d24backed Yes | 24c | 11,987$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,104.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +315.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 21c | 11,555$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,159.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed No | 2c | 11,076$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.09 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 25c | 10,819$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,166.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 69c | 10,813$7,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,305.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…07d6backed Yes | 15c | 10,636$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,040.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…66e5backed No | 0c | 10,194$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…0872backed No | 0c | 10,042$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…d7a2backed Yes | 77c | 10,036$7,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 53c | 10,000$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,690.23 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…4e5dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…f256backed Yes | 34c | 9,560$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,283.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 14c | 9,477$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.61 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 20c | 9,368$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,460.86 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 20c | 9,009$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,209.8 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 26c | 8,797$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,516.38 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f9…2924backed No | 0c | 8,668$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 19c | 8,637$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,969.04 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…8041backed Yes | 47c | 8,605$4,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,557.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 17c | 7,992$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,638.59 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf09…c378backed Yes | 28c | 7,919$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,668.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 17c | 7,366$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,113.38 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…2a38backed No | 0c | 7,306$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 28c | 7,185$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…7af9backed Yes | 22c | 6,955$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,402.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 75c | 6,926$5,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.46 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…12c9backed Yes | 17c | 6,912$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,745.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 79c | 6,859$5,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed No | 1c | 6,573$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 25c | 6,561$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,934.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1415…2360backed Yes | 28c | 6,528$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,729.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 21c | 6,472$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,096.61 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 78c | 6,443$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.94 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 59c | 6,378$3,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,638.61 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked Yes | 27c | 6,369$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,628.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 16c | 6,338$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,338.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 18c | 6,330$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,168.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 15c | 6,035$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,135.17 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…044dbacked Yes | 24c | 5,685$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,323.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 5,412$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 25c | 5,373$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,032.21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 14c | 5,350$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,598.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…adb0backed Yes | 48c | 5,156$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,656.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…db25backed Yes | 49c | 5,122$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 21c | 4,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,723.53 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…cf3abacked Yes | 74c | 4,605$3,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11c…fe41backed No | 4c | 4,559$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.52 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 78c | 4,312$3,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.65 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 69c | 4,249$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.33 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,219$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,713.07 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 52c | 4,209$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.72 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…a9a4backed Yes | 16c | 4,190$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,518.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 14c | 4,005$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.05 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 16c | 4,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…269ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,927$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,878.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,862$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,786.05 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…7479backed Yes | 15c | 3,746$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…4b5dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,695$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,145.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +571.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…0170backed No | 11c | 3,655$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330c…9dacbacked No | 5c | 3,642$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…1cbabacked Yes | 77c | 3,616$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…059fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,609$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…9c96backed Yes | 42c | 3,576$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 40c | 3,544$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.09 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 30c | 3,474$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.64 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 25c | 3,468$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,426$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.71 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?this page
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.