TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x059c…1cba

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+587.3%+$587.26
Italian Citizenship Residency Requirement Referendumbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,789Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+29.7%+$827.07
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$253.9
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,034Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+34.1%+$353
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$275.15
All 12 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2025, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandezbacked Dolidze · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Tairabacked Park · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan backed Rębecki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Brener vs. Ribovicsbacked Ribovics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$138.1
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Riccibacked Ricci · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$170.27
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$33.25
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$212.5
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+25%+$71.67
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$2.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.83
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.