World Politics · resolved market
Italian Citizenship Residency Requirement Referendum
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3adecdaa63b0c9d6cd65655a52f667fb72ed407e218abc7f66fcd52039cb6fb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,622$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…1cbabacked Yes | 5c | 2,069$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…876dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,958$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634e…a70fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,210$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 7c | 1,011$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 8c | 899.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 897.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 689.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 6c | 547.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 513.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 7c | 443.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…0465backed Yes | 5c | 396.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 8c | 373$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…387abacked Yes | 6c | 335.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…c452backed Yes | 3c | 332$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…400dbacked Yes | 4c | 326.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5a…2cdfbacked Yes | 5c | 279.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 8c | 252.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 6c | 232$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…d432backed Yes | 5c | 229.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…9241backed Yes | 5c | 212.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…dd68backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 10c | 149.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Italian Citizenship Residency Requirement Referendumthis page
- Italian Employment with increasing protection ReferendumNo won
- Italian imposition of term limits on employment contracts referendumNo won
- Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referendumNo won
- Italian solidary responsibility of the client, contractor, and subcontractor for injuries referendumNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.