World Politics · resolved market
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referendum
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d690464c58f93b522926c2199853e376bf73ef146eeeef38d6ed5f79233190a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 3,100$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.77 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634e…a70fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,164$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3c…7dfebacked Yes | 5c | 1,064$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 4c | 999.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd620…db7bbacked Yes | 3c | 963$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 810.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 4c | 744.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 727.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 5c | 697.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…5e13backed Yes | 2c | 661.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 658.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…0465backed Yes | 4c | 549.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…8a4dbacked Yes | 3c | 534$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b9…d553backed Yes | 4c | 524$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…1589backed Yes | 4c | 465$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b15…c7a2backed Yes | 5c | 410.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 5c | 407.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…d850backed Yes | 5c | 406.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 378.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…9c70backed Yes | 4c | 352.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…d432backed Yes | 3c | 349.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…2d88backed Yes | 5c | 324$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…2965backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…eaefbacked Yes | 4c | 307$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…2636backed Yes | 4c | 251$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referendumthis page
- Italian Citizenship Residency Requirement ReferendumNo won
- Italian Employment with increasing protection ReferendumNo won
- Italian imposition of term limits on employment contracts referendumNo won
- Italian solidary responsibility of the client, contractor, and subcontractor for injuries referendumNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.