UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Ricci
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6436164b1e2188734d10a1772fd826ac2e29488652d6dbc32b96394cf766b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ricciof Ribas, Ricci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Ricci | 65c | 19,720$12,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,919.21 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Ribas | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ribas | 59c | 5,658$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.72 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Ribas | 56c | 5,119$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.94 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Ribas | 62c | 4,000$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Ribas | 2c | 3,449$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Ricci | 38c | 3,186$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.18 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Ribas | 55c | 1,859$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.35 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ribas | 61c | 1,820$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.37 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Ribas | 14c | 1,428$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ribas | 63c | 1,072$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.16 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ricci | 40c | 1,066$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.6 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Ribas | 19c | 1,052$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Ricci | 39c | 873.67$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.94 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Ricci | 44c | 799.13$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.75 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Ricci | 37c | 699.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.99 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Ribas | 62c | 570.36$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Ricci | 37c | 546.25$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.6 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Ricci | 36c | 478.65$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.33 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Ricci | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Ribas | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ribas | 63c | 359.32$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.37 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Ricci | 32c | 358.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.77 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Ricci | 39c | 337.18$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.68 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Ribas | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Ricci | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Ricci | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…1cbabacked Ricci | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ribas | 62c | 259.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Ribas | 61c | 199.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…92b7backed Ricci | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Ribas | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed Ribas | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Ribas | 64c | 156.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…49c5backed Ricci | 37c | 135.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5879…bb5dbacked Ricci | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Ricci | 37c | 132$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Ricci | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ricci | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Ricci | 39c | 122.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ricci | 34c | 109.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…f1c9backed Ricci | 50c | 106.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Ribas | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Ricci | 39c | 89.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Ribas | 63c | 88.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Ribas | 57c | 79.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Ricci | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Ribas | 63c | 61.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Ribas | 57c | 55.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Ricci | 43c | 55.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Ribas | 39c | 54.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Ricci | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Ricci | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Ricci | 38c | 39.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Ribas | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…8160backed Ribas | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Ricci | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…796dbacked Ribas | 58c | 20.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…0d06backed Ribas | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…0634backed Ribas | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…a87cbacked Ribas | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Riccithis page
- UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. OchoaAlmabayev won
- UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. ElekanaElekana won
- UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. BuchechaBuday won
- UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. BlackshearGrant won
- UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. GuskovGuskov won
- UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. BarriaultMagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. NurmagomedovMitchell won
- UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. LealSalikhov won
- UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
- UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. NguyenNguyen won
- UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheeYan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.