UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. Elekana

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254a7c4d8c4e86fedff278deba38cb83947857eeb50362abba3d7c54f58ee3b6

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Elekanaof Aslan, Elekana
Resolved: Jul 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $88,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $115,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,511 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5172…0581backed Aslan	1c	12,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	34	2.9%1 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Elekana	57c	11,901$6,741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,160.21	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Elekana	27c	8,026$2,162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,864.19	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Aslan	73c	7,500$5,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,475	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Aslan	60c	4,949$2,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,961.5	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Elekana	28c	4,846$1,357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,489.45	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Aslan	71c	3,458$2,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,469.74	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Aslan	72c	2,800$2,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,015.99	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Elekana	76c	2,587$1,966 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$621.46	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Elekana	29c	2,050$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,455.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Aslan	72c	2,000$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440	134	53%71 W · 63 L	+7.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Elekana	28c	1,900$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,368	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Aslan	49c	1,600$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.93	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Aslan	13c	1,538$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.94	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Aslan	71c	1,452$1,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.21	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Elekana	27c	1,350$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$989.51	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.8wins	+0.27per pick	37cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd8e7…ef3bbacked Aslan	74c	1,349$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Elekana	28c	1,246$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$897.42	177	52%92 W · 85 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Aslan	64c	1,092$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$698.95	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Elekana	28c	1,000$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720	32	75%24 W · 8 L	+9.5wins	+0.30per pick	45cpaid	+84.9%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Aslan	72c	999.99$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.99	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Elekana	50c	990.98$492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.58	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Elekana	46c	699.99$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.99	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Aslan	71c	632.25$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.9	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aslan	68c	543.75$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.75	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Aslan	61c	516.46$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.4	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Elekana	26c	500$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Elekana	32c	500$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Elekana	27c	500$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Aslan	73c	400$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292	68	29.4%20 W · 48 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Elekana	50c	379.7$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.66	215	54.4%117 W · 98 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Elekana	28c	357.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.14	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Elekana	30c	333.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.33	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Elekana	30c	330$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de3…0321backed Elekana	28c	317.57$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.65	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Elekana	29c	300$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214	131	60.3%79 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Elekana	29c	299.99$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.99	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Aslan	70c	260$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.8	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Aslan	55c	260$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Aslan	73c	259.67$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.08	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	68cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Elekana	35c	258.72$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.12	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Aslan	72c	250$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed30…68d7backed Aslan	72c	250$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+125.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Elekana	28c	235.71$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.71	186	44.1%82 W · 104 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Aslan	48c	231$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.77	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Aslan	36c	216.58$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.1	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Elekana	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Elekana	27c	200$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Elekana	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Elekana	30c	199.99$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.99	100	45%45 W · 55 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Elekana	29c	172.88$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.88	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Aslan	46c	172.79$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.85	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Elekana	30c	168.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.21	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Elekana	54c	153.87$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.88	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Aslan	71c	148$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.08	90	62.2%56 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x101a…161bbacked Aslan	71c	141.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Aslan	72c	138.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…defdbacked Elekana	30c	110$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+6.6wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Aslan	73c	104.33$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.16	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	72cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Aslan	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Elekana	29c	100$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Aslan	75c	92.26$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.07	106	50.9%54 W · 52 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Aslan	73c	89.83$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.58	168	51.8%87 W · 81 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Elekana	29c	86.21$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.21	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed Aslan	71c	84.51$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Elekana	29c	80$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.08	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Aslan	63c	79.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	223	34.1%76 W · 147 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ed82backed Elekana	29c	78.58$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.79	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Elekana	28c	71.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.43	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked Elekana	28c	71.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.43	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Aslan	73c	69.79$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.95	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36a…49c5backed Aslan	75c	67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+83.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1feb…92b7backed Aslan	73c	66.08$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Elekana	35c	60$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+134.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…f1c9backed Elekana	56c	53.2$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.41	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+29%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Elekana	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Aslan	62c	48.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd201…0634backed Elekana	34c	44.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.41	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…7b5ebacked Aslan	73c	40.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0a…643abacked Aslan	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbd…63fabacked Aslan	72c	30$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Aslan	72c	28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Aslan	73c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	60.3%38 W · 25 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Aslan	66c	17.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Aslan	72c	17.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	22	72.7%16 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. Elekanathis page
UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. OchoaAlmabayev won
UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. BuchechaBuday won
UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. BlackshearGrant won
UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. GuskovGuskov won
UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. BarriaultMagomedov won
UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. NurmagomedovMitchell won
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. RicciRicci won
UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. LealSalikhov won
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. NguyenNguyen won
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheeYan won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. Elekana

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event