UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. Leal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd37392d624799e21a919ca72d7e932349ffe9fb51d0a88128789708d92e1767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Salikhovof Salikhov, Leal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Leal | 80c | 6,639$5,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,311.24 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Salikhov | 20c | 6,500$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,215 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Leal | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Salikhov | 23c | 4,667$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,615.83 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Salikhov | 21c | 3,121$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.52 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Leal | 79c | 2,926$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.64 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Salikhov | 18c | 2,825$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Salikhov | 17c | 2,747$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.02 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Salikhov | 19c | 2,693$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.3 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Salikhov | 18c | 2,094$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.06 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Salikhov | 19c | 2,063$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.7 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +9.5wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Leal | 15c | 1,598$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Leal | 14c | 1,428$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…45a2backed Salikhov | 19c | 1,178$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.63 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +49%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Salikhov | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Salikhov | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.98 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Leal | 78c | 643.4$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.01 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Leal | 79c | 502.39$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.89 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Salikhov | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Salikhov | 20c | 491.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.38 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…68d7backed Salikhov | 22c | 451.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Leal | 74c | 378.63$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.04 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Leal | 77c | 378.11$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.14 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Salikhov | 21c | 328.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.57 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Salikhov | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Salikhov | 20c | 300$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Salikhov | 19c | 267$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.12 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Leal | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Leal | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Salikhov | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Leal | 75c | 254.08$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.56 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Salikhov | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…49c5backed Salikhov | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…b493backed Salikhov | 20c | 225$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Leal | 76c | 200.83$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Salikhov | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…1214backed Salikhov | 21c | 170$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Salikhov | 30c | 168.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Leal | 80c | 156$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Leal | 75c | 150.31$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Salikhov | 20c | 140.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Salikhov | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Salikhov | 20c | 117.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Salikhov | 19c | 112.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Salikhov | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…92b7backed Salikhov | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Salikhov | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Salikhov | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Salikhov | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Leal | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Salikhov | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Leal | 75c | 98.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Salikhov | 19c | 88.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Leal | 80c | 65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Leal | 80c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Leal | 78c | 51.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…8812backed Salikhov | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…e8adbacked Salikhov | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Leal | 75c | 13.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…0634backed Leal | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. Lealthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. OchoaAlmabayev won
- UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. ElekanaElekana won
- UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. BuchechaBuday won
- UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. BlackshearGrant won
- UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. GuskovGuskov won
- UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. BarriaultMagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. NurmagomedovMitchell won
- UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. RicciRicci won
- UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
- UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. NguyenNguyen won
- UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheeYan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.