UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. Blackshear

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90fb212b4de4f26a65492ae492e58de97c7aecdaccecd07c7702aba4c7827582

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Grantof Grant, Blackshear
Resolved: Jul 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $114,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $147,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xce77…35d5backed Grant	60c	27,773$16,633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,140.07	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Blackshear	77c	14,344$11,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,096.04	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Blackshear	17c	10,000$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Grant	25c	8,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,000	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Blackshear	73c	7,200$5,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,277	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Grant	26c	6,429$1,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,743.27	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Blackshear	39c	5,848$2,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,260.07	60	50%30 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Grant	50c	4,597$2,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,296.15	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Blackshear	6c	3,998$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.88	34	2.9%1 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Blackshear	76c	3,887$2,971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,970.99	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blackshear	74c	3,562$2,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,636.21	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Blackshear	6c	3,332$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.92	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Blackshear	56c	3,000$1,665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,665	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Grant	23c	2,704$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,094.03	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Blackshear	69c	2,440$1,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,692.11	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Grant	25c	2,050$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,539.59	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Blackshear	75c	1,839$1,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,371.77	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Blackshear	34c	1,500$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Blackshear	42c	1,500$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Grant	24c	1,000$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Grant	24c	1,000$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$760	32	75%24 W · 8 L	+9.5wins	+0.30per pick	45cpaid	+84.9%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Grant	23c	1,000$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$770	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Grant	24c	999.98$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.98	100	41%41 W · 59 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bd…f540backed Blackshear	74c	995.36$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.57	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	72cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Blackshear	73c	929.67$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.49	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Grant	29c	852.5$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$602.5	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Blackshear	74c	800$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Blackshear	74c	734.14$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.26	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91a7…cac6backed Blackshear	74c	725.68$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Blackshear	63c	700$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Grant	24c	576.65$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.25	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Blackshear	70c	556.62$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.07	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Grant	24c	499.99$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.99	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Grant	26c	499.98$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.98	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Blackshear	75c	400$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa21d…a769backed Blackshear	75c	384.47$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.75per pick	75cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Grant	24c	324.99$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.5	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.8wins	+0.27per pick	37cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blackshear	74c	306.79$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.06	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Blackshear	75c	286.63$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.81	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Blackshear	73c	274$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.02	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Grant	38c	263.28$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.25	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Blackshear	77c	229.87$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Blackshear	76c	209$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.84	90	62.2%56 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Grant	24c	200$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Grant	23c	200$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Grant	25c	200$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	248	47.2%117 W · 131 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Blackshear	75c	191.97$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.97	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacd3…9e40backed Blackshear	23c	176.16$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Grant	29c	172.41$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.41	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Blackshear	52c	159.15$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.29	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd730…9a24backed Blackshear	74c	158.11$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	29	75.9%22 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	67cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Grant	28c	157.81$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.51	215	54.4%117 W · 98 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Grant	27c	153$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.21	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Blackshear	53c	150.54$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.66	63	54%34 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0a…643abacked Blackshear	68c	144$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.92	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd3…ac03backed Blackshear	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.22per pick	58cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Blackshear	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Blackshear	58c	122.2$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.43	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	-9.8wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb36a…49c5backed Grant	27c	117.62$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.86	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+83.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Blackshear	59c	112.77$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.58	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked Grant	26c	107.46$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.46	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddcd…39d9backed Blackshear	74c	93.77$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.39	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Blackshear	71c	85.28$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.65	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Grant	26c	73.53$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.41	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Blackshear	74c	73.53$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.41	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…aafdbacked Grant	29c	68.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.97	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Blackshear	73c	68.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Grant	29c	66.66$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.16	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Blackshear	74c	65.44$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.43	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b6…612ebacked Blackshear	77c	64.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5916…a87cbacked Blackshear	74c	61.16$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.26	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.18per pick	60cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Grant	20c	60.06$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.25	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Grant	67c	59.7$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.7	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Blackshear	51c	52.28$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.82	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Blackshear	35c	51.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ba4…0caabacked Blackshear	76c	47.5$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.25	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	67cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Grant	27c	44$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.12	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Grant	24c	42.58$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.36	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Blackshear	52c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Blackshear	74c	36.58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…ca45backed Blackshear	72c	34.23$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.65	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1feb…92b7backed Blackshear	74c	33.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Blackshear	76c	24.63$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Blackshear	73c	24$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Blackshear	75c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. Blackshearthis page
UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. OchoaAlmabayev won
UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. ElekanaElekana won
UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. BuchechaBuday won
UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. GuskovGuskov won
UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. BarriaultMagomedov won
UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. NurmagomedovMitchell won
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. RicciRicci won
UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. LealSalikhov won
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. NguyenNguyen won
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheeYan won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. Blackshear

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event