UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. Ochoa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe97bb1db6ed272e0aba54da9d34b5e6da9ff620ed6fe9ac57f3e9e474db766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Almabayevof Almabayev, Ochoa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Almabayev | 79c | 30,127$23,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,176.39 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Almabayev | 54c | 13,565$7,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,304.58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Ochoa | 49c | 12,290$6,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,039.32 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Almabayev | 51c | 12,014$6,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,886.99 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Ochoa | 52c | 9,614$4,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,953.22 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Ochoa | 25c | 9,593$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.13 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Almabayev | 48c | 9,500$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.98 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Ochoa | 50c | 5,534$2,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.91 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Ochoa | 50c | 5,000$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.5 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ochoa | 20c | 4,436$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.56 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Almabayev | 50c | 4,401$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.25 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Almabayev | 78c | 4,263$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.2 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Ochoa | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Ochoa | 40c | 3,421$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.09 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Ochoa | 49c | 3,108$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…3609backed Ochoa | 51c | 2,907$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Ochoa | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Almabayev | 48c | 2,491$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.23 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Almabayev | 52c | 2,485$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.01 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Almabayev | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Ochoa | 20c | 1,981$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.63 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Almabayev | 51c | 1,815$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.22 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ochoa | 47c | 1,811$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.45 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Ochoa | 50c | 1,666$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.62 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Ochoa | 51c | 1,650$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.56 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Almabayev | 48c | 1,546$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.02 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Ochoa | 33c | 1,531$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Almabayev | 50c | 1,500$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Ochoa | 49c | 1,500$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.97 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Almabayev | 51c | 1,454$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.23 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Ochoa | 44c | 1,400$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Ochoa | 49c | 1,229$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.11 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ochoa | 49c | 1,198$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.49 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Ochoa | 41c | 1,196$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.36 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ochoa | 47c | 1,161$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.57 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Almabayev | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Ochoa | 29c | 1,091$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.26 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Almabayev | 51c | 1,019$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.9 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Ochoa | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Ochoa | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Ochoa | 49c | 994.78$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Ochoa | 48c | 785.71$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Almabayev | 50c | 721.28$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…96bbbacked Ochoa | 50c | 608.96$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Ochoa | 21c | 600.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…245fbacked Almabayev | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Almabayev | 51c | 584.12$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.22 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Almabayev | 51c | 550$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Almabayev | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Almabayev | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Almabayev | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +9.5wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Ochoa | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fce8backed Ochoa | 50c | 466.32$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Ochoa | 50c | 402$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Ochoa | 47c | 401.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.94 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed Ochoa | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…831cbacked Almabayev | 62c | 395.58$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ochoa | 50c | 390$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Ochoa | 49c | 368.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Ochoa | 50c | 350$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…858cbacked Ochoa | 51c | 325.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Almabayev | 51c | 320.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Ochoa | 17c | 307.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ochoa | 47c | 300$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Almabayev | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Almabayev | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Ochoa | 17c | 240.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Almabayev | 50c | 237.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Ochoa | 21c | 209.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Almabayev | 70c | 202.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…ad93backed Ochoa | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Ochoa | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Almabayev | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Almabayev | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Almabayev | 51c | 183.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…92b7backed Ochoa | 51c | 180.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0299backed Almabayev | 51c | 175.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ochoa | 49c | 170.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Ochoa | 30c | 153.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Ochoa | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…49c5backed Almabayev | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Ochoa | 37c | 133.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…3e7ebacked Ochoa | 50c | 130.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Almabayev | 50c | 127.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Ochoa | 51c | 127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Ochoa | 40c | 120.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Almabayev | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…45a2backed Almabayev | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +49%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…3d90backed Ochoa | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Ochoa | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Ochoa | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Ochoa | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Ochoa | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Almabayev | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cd…a252backed Almabayev | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Ochoa | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Ochoa | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Almabayev | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Ochoa | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Almabayev | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. Ochoathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. ElekanaElekana won
- UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. BuchechaBuday won
- UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. BlackshearGrant won
- UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. GuskovGuskov won
- UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. BarriaultMagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. NurmagomedovMitchell won
- UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. RicciRicci won
- UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. LealSalikhov won
- UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
- UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. NguyenNguyen won
- UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheeYan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.