TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. Ochoa

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Almabayevof Almabayev, Ochoa
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,293 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce77…35d5backed Almabayev79c30,127$23,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,176.396051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Almabayev54c13,565$7,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,304.582343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Ochoa49c12,290$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,039.324934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Almabayev51c12,014$6,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,886.9935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Ochoa52c9,614$4,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,953.226050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Ochoa25c9,593$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.133327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Almabayev48c9,500$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.985147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Ochoa50c5,534$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,792.9110041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Ochoa50c5,000$2,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.516951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Ochoa20c4,436$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.5610443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Almabayev50c4,401$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.257841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Almabayev78c4,263$3,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.220954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de3…0321backed Ochoa52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0801435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Ochoa40c3,421$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.098544.7%38 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Ochoa49c3,108$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.982653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ef…3609backed Ochoa51c2,907$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Ochoa49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Almabayev48c2,491$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.236829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Almabayev52c2,485$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.0129848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fdb…7ea3backed Almabayev50c1,998$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9991936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Ochoa20c1,981$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.633933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Almabayev51c1,815$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.2212262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ochoa47c1,811$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.4518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Ochoa50c1,666$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.626943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Ochoa51c1,650$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.566645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Almabayev48c1,546$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.023458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Ochoa33c1,531$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Almabayev50c1,500$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7456547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Ochoa49c1,500$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9713453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Almabayev51c1,454$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.2336745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Ochoa44c1,400$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6211464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick37cpaid+104.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Ochoa49c1,229$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.118751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ochoa49c1,198$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.4933253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Ochoa41c1,196$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.3621554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Ochoa47c1,161$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.5720249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Almabayev50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55023537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Ochoa29c1,091$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.262330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Almabayev51c1,019$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.931855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Ochoa46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Ochoa47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47022144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Ochoa49c994.78$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.442842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Ochoa48c785.71$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3754665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked Almabayev50c721.28$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.64450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfca…96bbbacked Ochoa50c608.96$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Ochoa21c600.67$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.818145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x992e…245fbacked Almabayev51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.24540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Almabayev51c584.12$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.2251533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Almabayev51c550$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.56829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Almabayev53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2352564%16 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Almabayev51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Almabayev49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2553275%24 W · 8 L+9.5wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+84.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Ochoa50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25017850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x041f…fce8backed Ochoa50c466.32$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.161050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Ochoa50c402$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Ochoa47c401.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.944161%25 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2313…3ee6backed Ochoa50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d4…831cbacked Almabayev62c395.58$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.47650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Ochoa50c390$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19656450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Ochoa49c368.56$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.986031.7%19 W · 41 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Ochoa50c350$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.513160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d4…858cbacked Ochoa51c325.49$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Almabayev51c320.31$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.3124649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Ochoa17c307.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.845736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ochoa47c300$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14221031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Almabayev49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15328743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Almabayev51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.125839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Ochoa17c240.19$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.031631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Almabayev50c237.17$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.318851.1%45 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Ochoa21c209.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.952924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Almabayev70c202.94$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6126451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c77…ad93backed Ochoa50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e9…5105backed Ochoa47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Almabayev51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.086462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Almabayev51c196.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.072352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Almabayev51c183.63$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.983636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1feb…92b7backed Ochoa51c180.96$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.291752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade5…0299backed Almabayev51c175.15$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ochoa49c170.3$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Ochoa30c153.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4110148.5%49 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Ochoa51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.57745.5%35 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36a…49c5backed Almabayev51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+83.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Ochoa37c133.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.863946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b9…3e7ebacked Ochoa50c130.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Almabayev50c127.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.967859%46 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Ochoa51c127$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.546035%21 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Ochoa40c120.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.66354%34 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Almabayev50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e96…45a2backed Almabayev51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.652263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+49%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca85…3d90backed Ochoa27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Ochoa50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Ochoa37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372962.1%18 W · 11 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+62.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Ochoa50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Ochoa47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476633.3%22 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Almabayev50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5010045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1cd…a252backed Almabayev50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Ochoa44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4414827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Ochoa52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5222342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Almabayev49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5124847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Ochoa49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Almabayev51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.046731.3%21 W · 46 L-9.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.