TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mitchellof Mitchell, Nurmagomedov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$218,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Mitchell58c68,840$39,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,943.8435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Nurmagomedov42c60,550$25,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,412.761435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Mitchell57c19,947$11,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,577.3319154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Nurmagomedov43c19,013$8,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,105.446841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Nurmagomedov44c16,084$7,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,034.936050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Nurmagomedov43c10,019$4,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,276.255955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Mitchell56c9,000$5,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,933.7413453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Mitchell58c6,338$3,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.1714857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Mitchell30c5,500$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,830.410447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Nurmagomedov69c5,494$3,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,802.236746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Mitchell58c5,000$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.995147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de3…0321backed Mitchell57c4,482$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.431435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x743e…16aebacked Mitchell57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.971361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Mitchell57c3,896$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-49.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Nurmagomedov23c3,731$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.88544.7%38 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mitchell56c3,429$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.8937152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Nurmagomedov45c3,171$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.373933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Mitchell59c3,051$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.036262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nurmagomedov43c2,681$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.8312541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Mitchell59c2,546$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.251457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Nurmagomedov43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Nurmagomedov41c2,290$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.992352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked Mitchell59c2,100$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8611145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Nurmagomedov41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8208140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Mitchell57c1,650$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.498256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nurmagomedov42c1,569$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.4833253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Nurmagomedov42c1,560$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.98751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mitchell55c1,541$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.8118453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Nurmagomedov44c1,510$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.86547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nurmagomedov43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Mitchell14c1,428$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.08619.8%6 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Nurmagomedov43c1,279$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Mitchell50c1,255$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.617850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10be…393cbacked Nurmagomedov43c1,207$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e1…3b95backed Nurmagomedov43c1,100$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4756462.5%40 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Nurmagomedov43c1,022$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.436533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Nurmagomedov42c1,004$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.832142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mitchell58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Nurmagomedov42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-67.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Mitchell57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43010041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…6b85backed Nurmagomedov44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Nurmagomedov42c1,000$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42522144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Nurmagomedov43c993.02$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4272236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Nurmagomedov46c939.9$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43124649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Nurmagomedov43c820.16$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.6729848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Nurmagomedov43c799.98$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Nurmagomedov42c624.36$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.232842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9dd…27bebacked Nurmagomedov22c616.28$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Mitchell74c609.56$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5220954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Mitchell55c574.9$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.7112262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nurmagomedov43c550$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.56829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Nurmagomedov43c529.65$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.78851.1%45 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Mitchell57c524.77$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.9131855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Mitchell60c503.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.333458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Mitchell56c500.33$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.3412159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Mitchell60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed Nurmagomedov56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d99…4ca3backed Nurmagomedov43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Nurmagomedov45c499.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254161%25 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x101a…161bbacked Nurmagomedov43c479.07$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69cd…06f3backed Nurmagomedov43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nurmagomedov43c442.8$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.122330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Nurmagomedov46c436.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mitchell56c405.18$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1953956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Nurmagomedov43c400.44$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.191478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4af…c998backed Mitchell59c395.67$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick48cpaid+96.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb36a…49c5backed Nurmagomedov43c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+83.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe09f…4ad6backed Nurmagomedov42c335.71$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Mitchell61c326.26$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.265839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Mitchell58c320$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.448749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Nurmagomedov42c300.64$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.276031.7%19 W · 41 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Mitchell58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12625251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Mitchell58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12613041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Mitchell58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12613160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Nurmagomedov45c299.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9928743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Mitchell51c285.71$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1403275%24 W · 8 L+9.5wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+84.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Mitchell60c272.1$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.151533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Mitchell56c266.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3318644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Nurmagomedov43c265.21$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11418145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Nurmagomedov43c245.77$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6811540.9%47 W · 68 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbccd…6aeebacked Mitchell59c245.76$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+71.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Mitchell59c243.67$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.142352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fd3…ac03backed Nurmagomedov42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x146a…36fabacked Nurmagomedov42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007552%39 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc35…d905backed Nurmagomedov42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Nurmagomedov43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.762646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Mitchell57c224.32$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.464744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d8…2722backed Mitchell59c220$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mitchell54c212.15$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0810443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d4…831cbacked Nurmagomedov49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Mitchell58c199.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Nurmagomedov41c199.82$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.936633.3%22 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Mitchell54c196.28$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.293961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked Mitchell57c196.28$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Mitchell54c193.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0256450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…7465backed Mitchell58c190$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.81060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Mitchell44c190$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.421554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Nurmagomedov43c187.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Mitchell50c181.62$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.252252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…858cbacked Mitchell58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.