UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. Nguyen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51fdf927d9292bec5cd8b7a3bd4abb4b5593061c017683b5cbaf9d44f309ebb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nguyenof Yahya, Nguyen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Nguyen | 76c | 12,543$9,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.85 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Yahya | 25c | 12,000$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yahya | 25c | 8,461$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.36 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nguyen | 77c | 6,705$5,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.72 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Nguyen | 75c | 4,911$3,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.78 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Nguyen | 75c | 4,600$3,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Yahya | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yahya | 24c | 2,480$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.87 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Nguyen | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yahya | 23c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yahya | 23c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +9.5wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yahya | 24c | 1,964$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.35 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Yahya | 23c | 1,456$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yahya | 23c | 1,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Nguyen | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yahya | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Nguyen | 78c | 929.62$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…12debacked Yahya | 24c | 664.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yahya | 2c | 660.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Yahya | 27c | 657.36$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yahya | 24c | 592.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Yahya | 8c | 580.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yahya | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Nguyen | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yahya | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…15cabacked Yahya | 24c | 466.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yahya | 25c | 410.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Nguyen | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…245fbacked Nguyen | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yahya | 25c | 350$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Nguyen | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Nguyen | 77c | 289.99$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yahya | 23c | 248.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yahya | 24c | 199.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Nguyen | 74c | 154$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yahya | 24c | 143.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yahya | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Nguyen | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…92b7backed Nguyen | 75c | 130.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yahya | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yahya | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Nguyen | 76c | 95.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Yahya | 26c | 93.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Yahya | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Nguyen | 78c | 84.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yahya | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Nguyen | 75c | 69.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…b493backed Yahya | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Nguyen | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Yahya vs. Nguyenthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Almabayev vs. OchoaAlmabayev won
- UFC Fight Night: Aslan vs. ElekanaElekana won
- UFC Fight Night: Buday vs. BuchechaBuday won
- UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. BlackshearGrant won
- UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. GuskovGuskov won
- UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. BarriaultMagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. NurmagomedovMitchell won
- UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. RicciRicci won
- UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. LealSalikhov won
- UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderde Ridder won
- UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheeYan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.