TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
de Ridderof Whittaker, de Ridder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,084,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,138,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,084,486 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 385 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…b3dfbacked Whittaker60c504,714$302,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,273.82250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked de Ridder40c328,321$132,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195,817.135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed de Ridder40c144,231$57,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,538.8319544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe847…a70dbacked de Ridder42c58,893$24,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,020.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d1…546bbacked Whittaker60c49,564$29,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,976.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Whittaker58c43,326$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0002751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Whittaker58c38,577$22,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,516.8214857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed de Ridder40c35,782$14,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,369.4919154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed de Ridder44c33,698$14,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,751.366051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked de Ridder40c30,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,00022259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed de Ridder47c25,700$11,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,723.722343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Whittaker59c22,392$13,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,178.391952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked de Ridder41c22,000$9,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,979.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…78f5backed Whittaker59c18,521$11,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,012.48520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-71.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed de Ridder42c18,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,40016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Whittaker59c16,000$9,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4106746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed de Ridder44c13,746$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,746.057653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc405…e13dbacked Whittaker60c13,296$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed de Ridder42c10,975$4,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,365.4624356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Whittaker58c10,260$5,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,924.6811140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked de Ridder40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.992653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Whittaker57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.92966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Whittaker57c9,612$5,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,478.7510447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Whittaker58c9,500$5,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,509.985147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Whittaker58c9,474$5,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.115044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed de Ridder41c8,730$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,112.566645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fdb…7ea3backed Whittaker58c8,510$4,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,928.581936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Whittaker59c7,486$4,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,388.121435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Whittaker56c7,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9201070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Whittaker58c6,542$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,821.4729848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked de Ridder42c6,056$2,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,512.711457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Whittaker39c5,669$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.812924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked de Ridder49c5,589$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.313327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Whittaker57c5,242$2,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.2116049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x743e…16aebacked de Ridder40c4,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Whittaker60c4,403$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcede…d622backed de Ridder43c4,191$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Whittaker64c4,038$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.1110443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed de Ridder40c4,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4004744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked de Ridder47c4,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed de Ridder42c4,000$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.9953956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Whittaker55c3,903$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.4720954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed de Ridder59c3,830$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.327233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed de Ridder42c3,686$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Whittaker61c3,607$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2005843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed de Ridder43c3,500$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.993275%24 W · 8 L+9.5wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+84.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Whittaker59c3,468$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.3810041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Whittaker43c3,439$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.518751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked de Ridder62c3,168$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.5331855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Whittaker57c3,155$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.631154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f73…8d13backed de Ridder44c3,051$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed de Ridder42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed de Ridder40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8008256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed de Ridder57c2,933$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.513655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked de Ridder42c2,561$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.8317850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed de Ridder42c2,500$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed de Ridder39c2,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.9916745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Whittaker56c2,436$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.648140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc00…3868backed de Ridder42c2,402$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked de Ridder42c2,307$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked de Ridder41c2,295$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.114161%25 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd684…1a34backed Whittaker56c2,240$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.39966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Whittaker59c2,229$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.1112262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed de Ridder43c2,228$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.752937.9%11 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked de Ridder42c2,126$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.256262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Whittaker61c2,052$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked de Ridder40c2,032$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.25435.2%19 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed de Ridder33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3406943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Whittaker28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5606142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked de Ridder43c1,799$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.283745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed de Ridder42c1,773$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.1212134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Whittaker60c1,765$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.827841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed de Ridder42c1,700$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.983171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked de Ridder39c1,678$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.637152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Whittaker36c1,665$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.662330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked de Ridder44c1,600$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8964953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Whittaker37c1,599$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.7718145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc607…4e9abacked de Ridder41c1,475$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.191060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked de Ridder28c1,418$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.3251533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10be…393cbacked de Ridder41c1,415$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed de Ridder43c1,408$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.752227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed de Ridder73c1,402$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.412564%16 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked de Ridder43c1,350$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76625251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed de Ridder42c1,329$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.7619230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed de Ridder42c1,327$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.1812639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed de Ridder46c1,285$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Whittaker60c1,258$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Whittaker60c1,250$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccac…9940backed Whittaker58c1,186$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6881747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…40e1backed de Ridder43c1,182$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.771747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed de Ridder43c1,179$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.766547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Whittaker54c1,146$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.728348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Whittaker55c1,110$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.2436745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked de Ridder38c1,010$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.737147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Whittaker1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Whittaker57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-67.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed de Ridder40c999.99$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5967448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Whittaker58c999.99$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.4421044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69cd…06f3backed de Ridder42c973.98$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Whittaker52c966.8$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5348749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.