TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Topuriaof Topuria, Oliveira
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,322,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,466,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,322,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 869 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9708…925bbacked Oliveira22c393,493$88,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,166.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…e60cbacked Oliveira24c101,617$24,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,093.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Topuria78c89,256$69,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,036.311637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Topuria77c77,578$59,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,941.211643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Topuria77c60,000$46,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,799.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Topuria78c40,700$31,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,95422259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4222…bcd3backed Topuria78c40,319$31,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,870.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Topuria78c38,789$30,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,534.073066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Oliveira22c37,078$8,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,307.131060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+82.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3744…c141backed Oliveira23c36,796$8,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,463.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Oliveira24c36,025$8,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,511.916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Topuria78c34,161$26,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,667.4735253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5912…89aebacked Topuria77c32,415$24,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,455.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Topuria78c31,552$24,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,941.52147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Topuria78c30,000$23,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.981855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Topuria77c25,000$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.962653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Oliveira22c24,703$5,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,434.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+65.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Topuria76c20,050$15,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,862.9213453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Topuria77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.9714857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Topuria77c19,400$14,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,461.992958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Oliveira24c18,363$4,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3286645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Oliveira24c17,312$4,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,098.621457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Oliveira24c15,753$3,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,809.143342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8082…b212backed Topuria75c15,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.621070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Topuria76c13,300$10,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,191.993959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Topuria77c13,142$10,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,054.153259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Oliveira21c13,054$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.083933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…82dcbacked Oliveira6c12,877$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Topuria77c12,850$9,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,955.537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Topuria77c12,800$9,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,943.96988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+54.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x229a…4ed2backed Oliveira23c10,701$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec94…af7abacked Oliveira23c10,298$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…2357backed Oliveira0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Oliveira16c10,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5902030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb4…ce44backed Oliveira23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cbd…6355backed Topuria78c9,509$7,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc5…8238backed Topuria78c9,276$7,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Topuria77c8,857$6,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.1120249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Oliveira23c8,696$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+57.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Topuria78c8,459$6,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.7312262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x704a…7c42backed Oliveira24c8,000$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Topuria76c7,483$5,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.6117158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Oliveira21c7,297$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.48348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc511…be96backed Oliveira11c7,011$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Oliveira20c7,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.993250%16 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7f…b1d4backed Oliveira23c6,522$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Topuria78c6,172$4,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.876050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5932…b8b0backed Oliveira26c5,786$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Oliveira24c5,702$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Topuria77c5,454$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.4633253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Topuria77c5,300$4,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.9939959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Topuria78c5,128$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.217653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33b2…3d6fbacked Topuria77c5,029$3,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1621…1f42backed Topuria80c5,025$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Oliveira19c4,892$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.214929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc54a…94f3backed Topuria77c4,727$3,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Topuria78c4,700$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.343652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Oliveira24c4,354$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0406845.6%31 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked Oliveira23c4,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Topuria78c4,080$3,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.982751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Oliveira22c4,053$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.081513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-67.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Oliveira22c4,051$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.6835826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Topuria77c4,043$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.8518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Topuria78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.791330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Topuria76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Topuria77c4,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.994042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb72…8b01backed Topuria77c3,772$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Topuria78c3,604$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.821675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdc4…da65backed Oliveira25c3,594$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Topuria77c3,505$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.151850%9 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Topuria79c3,320$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.21675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2588…1cfdbacked Topuria76c3,300$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+123.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Topuria75c3,285$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.9523850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Topuria77c3,205$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.0411761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Topuria78c3,163$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.036462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked Oliveira23c3,043$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e1…3b95backed Oliveira24c3,000$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.966462.5%40 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Topuria77c3,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6901850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacad…bceabacked Topuria78c2,812$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7d…430cbacked Topuria79c2,773$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb9…e1c2backed Oliveira23c2,760$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Topuria78c2,744$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.595265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Oliveira17c2,704$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.348835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Topuria77c2,682$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.5453956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896d…9dd0backed Oliveira23c2,543$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Topuria77c2,525$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.7211844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Topuria78c2,500$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Oliveira23c2,500$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Topuria77c2,500$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.492236.4%8 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc985…1e7dbacked Topuria78c2,471$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.69955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Topuria77c2,400$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5521770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3953…2046backed Topuria79c2,303$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Topuria78c2,299$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.673661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Oliveira23c2,266$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.152138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6187…1746backed Topuria77c2,240$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Topuria76c2,236$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.274548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…d3f0backed Oliveira23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001650%8 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+45.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d43…743bbacked Oliveira24c2,107$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe15…fd78backed Oliveira24c2,090$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Oliveira24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.