TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pantojaof Pantoja, Kara-France
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$560,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$614,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9708…925bbacked Kara-France30c170,934$50,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,934.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb75…0252backed Pantoja70c70,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,000887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Pantoja70c35,370$24,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,599.6814857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Kara-France31c34,272$10,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,476.331643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pantoja71c30,000$21,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,70013039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Pantoja70c23,200$16,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,959.9522259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Kara-France31c22,222$6,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,888.82548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Kara-France31c20,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.981637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Kara-France31c17,963$5,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,568.683259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Kara-France30c16,997$5,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.1840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Pantoja69c16,306$11,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,005.791855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Pantoja74c15,500$11,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0907841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Kara-France31c15,100$4,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,711.8110447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Pantoja70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d09…3150backed Pantoja69c14,453$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Pantoja68c10,860$7,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.6935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Kara-France32c10,000$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.7411140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Pantoja69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Kara-France29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.996051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Pantoja74c9,973$7,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.193751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Pantoja70c8,328$5,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.686645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Pantoja70c8,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.983959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Pantoja70c6,357$4,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.6320249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kara-France29c5,779$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.9337152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Pantoja70c5,503$3,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.82948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ade…424dbacked Pantoja70c5,354$3,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Kara-France29c5,260$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.3936745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Kara-France30c5,164$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.2611844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Pantoja69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pantoja68c4,360$2,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.3314929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Pantoja69c4,348$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.833100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e7…c7c7backed Pantoja68c4,120$2,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-47.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Pantoja69c3,623$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.191675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Kara-France29c3,601$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.2911761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Pantoja71c3,380$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.281172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+123.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pantoja70c3,180$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.0833253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kara-France33c3,100$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.0235826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Kara-France29c2,837$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.5942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Pantoja71c2,817$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.95265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Pantoja70c2,759$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.716050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Kara-France33c2,712$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.882751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Pantoja71c2,562$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.892755.6%15 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8082…b212backed Pantoja67c2,500$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.541070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Kara-France31c2,400$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7441770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kara-France30c2,324$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.5918453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Pantoja68c2,289$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.814156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7225…293abacked Pantoja71c2,087$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Kara-France30c1,993$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kara-France16c1,860$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.2514530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Kara-France12c1,841$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6620954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Pantoja73c1,721$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.2913453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pantoja68c1,650$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5284042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Kara-France31c1,561$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.768348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Pantoja68c1,559$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.134161%25 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kara-France18c1,549$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27810443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Kara-France33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Kara-France30c1,515$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.5523537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa9…b9bbbacked Pantoja69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.28560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcb…0426backed Pantoja69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Pantoja69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.286262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Pantoja70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.577653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1621…1f42backed Pantoja71c1,406$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Pantoja71c1,400$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4062445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Kara-France30c1,371$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.310041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kara-France32c1,330$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.9213953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Kara-France10c1,243$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.093933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Pantoja71c1,100$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3213652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Pantoja68c1,100$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.998256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c0…21febacked Kara-France32c1,094$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c77…a901backed Kara-France30c1,064$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.21723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Kara-France31c1,063$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.6821044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bd…f540backed Pantoja71c1,018$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Kara-France31c1,018$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.652646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7d…551fbacked Pantoja69c1,014$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Pantoja69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Kara-France31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3106349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eeb…dc1abacked Kara-France12c1,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.233357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Pantoja79c867.67$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4711540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Pantoja71c859.58$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.281330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Kara-France30c856.88$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.061233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Pantoja71c739.44$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.442564%16 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a346backed Pantoja69c724.8$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.81844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe15…fd78backed Pantoja69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Pantoja70c715$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.513044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…1b36backed Kara-France32c606.25$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Pantoja69c604.99$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18648749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Kara-France33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19819531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Pantoja74c589.29$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.546657.6%38 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ec…6b20backed Pantoja69c579.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcffc…2a55backed Pantoja69c579.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.711250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Pantoja71c563.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+57.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Kara-France11c551.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1618145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d7d…091bbacked Kara-France32c532.69$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78fa…103abacked Kara-France13c515.48$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-68.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb00a…624abacked Pantoja70c507.51$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+64.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Kara-France30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Kara-France29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14522144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc998…4881backed Pantoja69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1552100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Kara-France32c487$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x384f…0874backed Pantoja69c486.85$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.161662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.