UFC · resolved market
UFC 317: Diniz vs. Hines
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca8e4cceb4a88e9ab6f2a91f03ab41b87b2a8ba5d5310c8b6bc3cc5057bbf28a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diniz of Diniz , Hines
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Hines | 21c | 30,648$6,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,533.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Diniz | 78c | 22,317$17,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,910.64 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Diniz | 80c | 12,437$9,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.72 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Hines | 20c | 7,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Hines | 23c | 5,871$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…94f3backed Diniz | 80c | 5,207$4,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Hines | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Hines | 25c | 3,947$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.75 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diniz | 77c | 3,605$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.69 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Hines | 3c | 3,126$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Diniz | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Hines | 10c | 2,286$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diniz | 78c | 2,283$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.52 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hines | 25c | 2,050$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.06 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Hines | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Diniz | 75c | 1,900$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Hines | 20c | 1,750$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…b17bbacked Diniz | 78c | 1,597$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Diniz | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Hines | 21c | 1,381$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.79 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Hines | 22c | 1,122$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.99 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Diniz | 75c | 1,116$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.88 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hines | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Hines | 22c | 999.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Diniz | 78c | 933.32$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.32 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diniz | 77c | 909$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.07 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Hines | 23c | 890.71$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Hines | 22c | 841.87$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.16 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Diniz | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Hines | 21c | 619.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Hines | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Diniz | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Diniz | 79c | 489.73$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Hines | 23c | 465.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Hines | 22c | 463.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Hines | 24c | 455$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Hines | 11c | 450$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Hines | 21c | 416$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Hines | 31c | 324.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Diniz | 72c | 304.46$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Hines | 21c | 290$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hines | 19c | 287$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Hines | 14c | 215$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…a901backed Hines | 24c | 205$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Diniz | 73c | 202.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Diniz | 72c | 201$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Diniz | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Diniz | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Diniz | 77c | 169.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…1e17backed Hines | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Hines | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Diniz | 79c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Diniz | 77c | 110.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Hines | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Diniz | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Diniz | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Diniz | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Hines | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…416dbacked Hines | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Hines | 22c | 80.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Hines | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Diniz | 60c | 42.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Hines | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Diniz | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Diniz | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Diniz | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Diniz | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Diniz | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 317: Diniz vs. Hines this page
- UFC 317: Amil vs. DelgadoDelgado won
- UFC 317: Araujo vs. CortezCortez won
- UFC 317: Dariush vs. MoicanoDariush won
- UFC 317: Hermansson vs. RodriguesRodrigues won
- UFC 317: McKinney vs. BorshchevMcKinney won
- UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-FrancePantoja won
- UFC 317: Price vs. Smith Smith won
- UFC 317: Royval vs. VanVan won
- UFC 317: Talbott vs. LimaTalbott won
- UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraTopuria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.