UFC · resolved market

UFC 317: McKinney vs. Borshchev

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x353b19c4927c565fbbc2d5f300a4d1da0021ed2e4440b3bf342f458bc691c358

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: McKinneyof McKinney, Borshchev
Resolved: Jun 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $108,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $122,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,619 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Borshchev	40c	22,789$9,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,123.17	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed McKinney	62c	21,650$13,427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,223.39	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Borshchev	38c	20,000$7,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,599.99	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed McKinney	60c	12,509$7,506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,003.73	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked McKinney	61c	7,538$4,589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,949.01	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked McKinney	60c	6,676$4,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,670.4	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked McKinney	60c	6,069$3,644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,424.63	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	55cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Borshchev	39c	6,000$2,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,340	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Borshchev	41c	5,100$2,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,084.89	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked McKinney	60c	4,103$2,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,642.89	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed McKinney	61c	3,285$2,004 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,281.04	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37d2…45eebacked McKinney	63c	3,207$2,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,197.22	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Borshchev	28c	2,541$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Borshchev	39c	2,474$965 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$964.87	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Borshchev	37c	2,422$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.75	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Borshchev	3c	2,100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed McKinney	61c	2,000$1,220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed McKinney	59c	2,000$1,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Borshchev	1c	1,499$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Borshchev	40c	1,377$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.36	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed McKinney	61c	1,204$736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$467.82	149	29.5%44 W · 105 L	-15.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed McKinney	59c	1,058$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431.69	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed McKinney	60c	1,000$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed McKinney	62c	1,000$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Borshchev	38c	947.2$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.94	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x976c…62b8backed Borshchev	40c	880.25$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked McKinney	61c	822.46$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.46	62	62.9%39 W · 23 L	+8.7wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Borshchev	39c	687$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.93	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Borshchev	41c	682.93$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Borshchev	40c	669.12$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.65	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked McKinney	61c	655.74$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.74	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Borshchev	40c	501$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.4	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked McKinney	61c	500$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195	252	51.2%129 W · 123 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Borshchev	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed McKinney	61c	499.98$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.99	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe15…fd78backed Borshchev	41c	487.8$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked McKinney	62c	403.23$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.23	264	51.9%137 W · 127 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed McKinney	61c	357$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.34	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Borshchev	40c	345.96$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	68	29.4%20 W · 48 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae8…b7d8backed McKinney	61c	327.87$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.87	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Borshchev	18c	300$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked McKinney	60c	300$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x467a…0727backed McKinney	61c	268.67$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.78	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Borshchev	38c	252.31$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.88	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Borshchev	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	298	48.7%145 W · 153 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Borshchev	41c	243.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Borshchev	41c	234$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.94	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Borshchev	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Borshchev	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed McKinney	60c	200$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed McKinney	60c	195$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.6	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Borshchev	41c	180.49$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	106	50.9%54 W · 52 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Borshchev	40c	180$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed McKinney	62c	155.6$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.13	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed McKinney	61c	141.93$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.81	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Borshchev	39c	130$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.7	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e5…1d48backed Borshchev	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	110	57.3%63 W · 47 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked McKinney	59c	107.13$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.92	238	50.4%120 W · 118 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed McKinney	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked McKinney	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c77…a901backed Borshchev	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	38cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa910…0777backed McKinney	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Borshchev	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked McKinney	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	131	60.3%79 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3930…13b0backed McKinney	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.3wins	+0.20per pick	57cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e6c…178cbacked McKinney	62c	80.32$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.52	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9839…040ebacked Borshchev	40c	80$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.9wins	-0.27per pick	36cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Borshchev	40c	75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc90…a076backed Borshchev	40c	65.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.02	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Borshchev	41c	60.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	97	37.1%36 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x103b…22cbbacked Borshchev	41c	60.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Borshchev	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Borshchev	39c	55.64$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97be…416dbacked McKinney	61c	52.15$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.34	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Borshchev	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Borshchev	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Borshchev	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Borshchev	39c	48.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Borshchev	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65d9…8608backed Borshchev	39c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Borshchev	39c	38.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	283	33.2%94 W · 189 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c51…2b47backed McKinney	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10e…e895backed McKinney	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-4.5wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ff5…89dbbacked Borshchev	41c	26.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f5…9093backed Borshchev	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41e6…1f56backed Borshchev	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1141…971ebacked McKinney	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed McKinney	62c	18.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c7…a91ebacked McKinney	62c	16.47$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.26	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC 317: McKinney vs. Borshchevthis page
UFC 317: Amil vs. DelgadoDelgado won
UFC 317: Araujo vs. CortezCortez won
UFC 317: Dariush vs. MoicanoDariush won
UFC 317: Diniz vs. Hines Diniz won
UFC 317: Hermansson vs. RodriguesRodrigues won
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-FrancePantoja won
UFC 317: Price vs. Smith Smith won
UFC 317: Royval vs. VanVan won
UFC 317: Talbott vs. LimaTalbott won
UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraTopuria won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC 317: McKinney vs. Borshchev

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event