TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 317: Talbott vs. Lima

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Talbottof Talbott, Lima
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$420,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9708…925bbacked Talbott42c252,588$105,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147,133.93933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lima58c100,000$58,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,0007853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Lima58c70,560$40,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,622.773751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lima60c27,410$16,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,448.1313039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Lima58c17,030$9,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,898.194067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lima61c15,000$9,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,15016049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lima42c11,860$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.614530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Talbott39c11,730$4,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,163.221643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Lima10c11,586$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.391533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Talbott39c11,533$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,034.833259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Talbott40c11,250$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7501637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lima58c9,000$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,22037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Lima19c6,736$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.97233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Lima61c4,918$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04a7…c0dfbacked Lima63c4,842$3,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.693748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Talbott60c4,744$2,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.426051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Talbott39c4,433$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,704.122653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lima58c4,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9742042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Lima68c3,800$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.763652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Lima27c3,452$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.633933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Lima61c3,276$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.181457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Talbott69c2,879$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.7911540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lima41c2,776$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.8610443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Talbott63c2,516$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.2323537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Lima61c2,500$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Lima60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Talbott40c2,481$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.5110447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lima22c2,455$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.459336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Lima60c2,000$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19935539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Talbott38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.992948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Lima58c1,975$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.6813453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Lima37c1,872$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.6318145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Talbott41c1,829$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.275044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Talbott36c1,828$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.963933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Talbott42c1,816$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.313458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Talbott35c1,750$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.58348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Talbott41c1,707$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.322540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Lima52c1,670$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.537653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa9…b9bbbacked Lima60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Lima19c1,488$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.2628043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Lima60c1,401$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.7410041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Talbott77c1,376$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.5526451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Lima61c1,145$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.55633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Lima61c1,118$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.9836745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Lima60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Lima60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Talbott38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62020954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Lima61c999.98$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.996352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Lima60c817.27$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.362544%11 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Lima59c800$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4723171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Talbott59c775.82$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.6637754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Talbott24c721.03$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.984330.2%13 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Lima12c682.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.596657.6%38 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Lima8c620.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.888835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c77…a901backed Lima60c600$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.681723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Lima62c575$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Lima63c561.24$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.325754.4%31 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Talbott40c502.86$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.162751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Lima60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30032545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…ce44backed Lima47c500$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Lima60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-67.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Lima61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055954.2%32 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Lima63c494.84$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.883740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae8…b7d8backed Talbott41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Lima60c484.97$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.433948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Lima42c482.66$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4722342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lima58c479$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8213953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Talbott40c477.51$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.2812262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d88…8d8ebacked Lima65c458.83$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Lima62c425$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.7548749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Talbott39c412.23$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5918453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Talbott39c406.14$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.146829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Lima61c400$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2444134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Talbott41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23651533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Talbott33c400$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2682142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked Talbott39c384.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.623745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7774…15d4backed Talbott40c382.5$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.53661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Lima51c335.29$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712755.6%15 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Talbott45c334.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.286443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Lima61c334.43$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe15…fd78backed Lima62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e25…96d6backed Talbott42c319.05$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.051266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Lima60c304.33$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.611540.9%47 W · 68 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81ee…caa4backed Talbott37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1893231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x70fd…736abacked Lima60c286$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Lima59c279.66$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Talbott38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.168640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e70…19e8backed Talbott38c263.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.151145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Talbott39c260$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.66336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Lima60c256.8$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0810040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Talbott33c251.04$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Lima60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15031855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Talbott40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1509737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Talbott40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502536%9 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Lima61c249.94$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.461258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Talbott42c238.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.88540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x677f…3d69backed Lima59c238.82$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97be…416dbacked Lima60c225.08$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.052955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lima62c219.75$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2533253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Lima47c218$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.813450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.