TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes50c15,755$7,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,841.773821.1%8 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes77c9,959$7,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,682.291233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked No9c6,529$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,941.976126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes43c4,506$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.9210433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No53c3,052$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.663525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No59c2,915$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.2923330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No55c2,765$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.199144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes47c2,072$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.4622433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes39c2,000$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+233.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c1,433$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.2719931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77e…098abacked Yes42c1,239$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+75.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes49c1,158$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.094250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes40c895.34$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.733435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes44c768.09$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.876235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No49c753.93$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.711216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c729.94$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.9615148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes50c632.77$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No59c624.31$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.971526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No46c623.68$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.091250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No52c606.6$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.42454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes47c600$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2821040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes47c535.22$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes39c510.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No53c382.12$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.74751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes48c316.23$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.56532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No27c221.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.611668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No51c219$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3212820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d2…37fabacked Yes47c212.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No59c212$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.571060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No54c209.13$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed No49c202.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02df…22e1backed Yes50c200.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9211334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4169…eb58backed Yes52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccd9…0454backed Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…af12backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8b…fd9dbacked Yes63c199$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89d5…591bbacked Yes51c196.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94db…55f5backed Yes60c188$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x428e…b901backed Yes47c164.22$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes45c150.87$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.612433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.31643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No61c138$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.566429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes38c134.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6717528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c129$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4114024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2a…bf19backed No53c127.08$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.081338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No50c127$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.573847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes33c123.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No55c119.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes29c105$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.95728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed No35c101.07$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7513338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3914325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes43c95.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes48c72.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dda…a444backed Yes35c71.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddaf…1d28backed Yes49c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ad…f321backed No57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No53c59.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.284744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bca…7316backed Yes53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0cb…9f08backed No54c55.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a7…a9cdbacked No55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb8…b964backed No63c53.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Yes57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85b…60e1backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0edd…b01cbacked Yes45c51.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+359.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4905…ace8backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339f…e806backed Yes48c43.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8b…fc4abacked Yes50c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…35e4backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5224…a664backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5651…5e65backed Yes59c38.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63b3…2754backed Yes52c38.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca1…73f0backed Yes57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b95…f061backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd668…a01cbacked Yes52c32.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe69d…fbc5backed Yes56c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbae…9874backed Yes58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x501d…8fe8backed No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed No49c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.733119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c22.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3720242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…a458backed Yes48c21.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…2220backed No64c20.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb1…2630backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda38…edaebacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.