Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3fbe23c5d834cc300280814d54ca6fa8856d7270eb0ef6859bfbbf2d8c9cd41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 50c | 15,755$7,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,841.77 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 77c | 9,959$7,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,682.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 9c | 6,529$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,941.97 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 43c | 4,506$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.92 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 53c | 3,052$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 59c | 2,915$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.29 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 2,765$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.19 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 47c | 2,072$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.46 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 39c | 2,000$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 1,433$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.27 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 42c | 1,239$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 49c | 1,158$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.09 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 40c | 895.34$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.73 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 44c | 768.09$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.87 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 49c | 753.93$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 729.94$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.96 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes | 50c | 632.77$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 59c | 624.31$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 46c | 623.68$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 52c | 606.6$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes | 47c | 535.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 39c | 510.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 53c | 382.12$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.7 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 48c | 316.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 27c | 221.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.61 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 51c | 219$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…37fabacked Yes | 47c | 212.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 59c | 212$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 54c | 209.13$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 49c | 202.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 50c | 200.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…eb58backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…af12backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…fd9dbacked Yes | 63c | 199$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 51c | 196.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…55f5backed Yes | 60c | 188$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…b901backed Yes | 47c | 164.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 45c | 150.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 61c | 138$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 134.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 129$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…bf19backed No | 53c | 127.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 50c | 127$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 33c | 123.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 55c | 119.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed No | 35c | 101.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes | 43c | 95.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…4356backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…a444backed Yes | 35c | 71.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…1d28backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 59.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bca…7316backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cb…9f08backed No | 54c | 55.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…a9cdbacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb8…b964backed No | 63c | 53.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…60e1backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…b01cbacked Yes | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4905…ace8backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…e806backed Yes | 48c | 43.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…fc4abacked Yes | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…35e4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…a664backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…5e65backed Yes | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…2754backed Yes | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…73f0backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b95…f061backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…a01cbacked Yes | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe69d…fbc5backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9874backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…8fe8backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 22.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…a458backed Yes | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2220backed No | 64c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda38…edaebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?this page
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in August?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in August?Yes won
- Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.