Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2278c1bb85cc3032e65dabffd22c7ce4759bbff8dadf40a0849856a796cec349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 16c | 3,978$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.6 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 20c | 3,258$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.01 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 2,885$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.35 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 16c | 2,429$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.8 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 16c | 2,316$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 16c | 1,612$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.95 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 20c | 1,455$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.31 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 15c | 1,331$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.61 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 1,300$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 18c | 995.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 31c | 589.07$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 15c | 558.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 13c | 549.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 17c | 543.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…d861backed No | 70c | 474.08$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 15c | 449.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 16c | 445.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…f9d6backed Yes | 18c | 342$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 320$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 35c | 260.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 30c | 224.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 166.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 36c | 137.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 134$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…e806backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 17c | 115.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 32c | 70.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Yes | 24c | 62.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4905…ace8backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fd…fd7cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…40c1backed No | 69c | 23.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 68c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?this page
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in August?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in August?Yes won
- Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.