Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3e162014e5d29d7b321e5d838e2051a186ece6744fbd6a6de46a505deb12d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 4c | 11,122$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.8 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 1c | 8,101$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 5,879$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.32 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 4c | 4,441$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.89 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 4c | 2,429$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,003$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 1,900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 1,844$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,814$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 2c | 1,638$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 3c | 999$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 929.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…f9d6backed Yes | 4c | 342$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August?this page
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in August?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in August?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.