TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will the US add less than 50k jobs in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x028e…c937backed No75c10,948$8,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,251.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes24c10,003$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,582.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+106.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes29c8,169$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,834.5810433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes23c7,272$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,580.6412049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No70c3,371$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No74c2,565$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.699144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes26c2,526$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.136023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No73c2,439$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.6223330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93c…689cbacked Yes24c2,254$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.04944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes31c2,000$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.3837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+233.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes19c1,800$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.9819931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes33c1,265$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.074250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes25c1,201$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.471216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes21c1,129$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.3812820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c1,086$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.9115148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed Yes25c1,055$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.982454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d0…4843backed Yes23c1,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7701136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+79.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd77e…098abacked Yes19c946.34$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+75.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes30c943.04$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.465145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes29c785.22$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.523435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes4c721.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.343713.5%5 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+1,104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes31c644.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes25c640.52$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.52677.5%5 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes32c633$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.441030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes30c628.78$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.82742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No77c600$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa8c…5baebacked Yes18c562.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+462.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes29c525$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.756235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes13c474$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.61020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No76c473.59$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.881250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No68c458.94$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.213525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes17c455.6$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.713070%21 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No74c444$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3422433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No71c407.71$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes18c403.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.146126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No66c349.55$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.611526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes25c335$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.513920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No76c283.99$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.141060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes20c280.66$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.8613338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc99b…45dabacked Yes17c264.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes32c260$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes27c250$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c219$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2414024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864c…6808backed No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No35c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24ce…af12backed Yes19c200$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes27c198$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.544231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes13c190$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.87728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes32c169.64$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.643821.1%8 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd9…0454backed Yes38c107$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.481723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8114325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b8…2a82backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd0…f582backed Yes18c97.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+444.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes17c85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.64751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes30c77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddaf…1d28backed No74c70$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55da…839abacked No78c70$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0fb…95dabacked Yes30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf52…30a5backed Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b3…2754backed Yes33c60.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b6b…994dbacked Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed Yes29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.61233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3424…31a7backed Yes20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+47.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fc…c28abacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe69d…fbc5backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe0…f9d6backed Yes25c45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes31c44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.366429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf8b…fc4abacked Yes26c41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee6…40cabacked No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2a…bf19backed Yes30c39.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No66c36.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2817528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda03…96b4backed No77c32.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c6a…9f0dbacked No77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No74c23.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…2220backed No70c23.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.551353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.