TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x72ad…f321

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Macro Indicators at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+194.1%+$26.4
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$147
Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will the U.S. deport illegal migrants to El Salvador before April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$14.4
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+284.6%+$56.92
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$95.69
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+198.7%+$45.13
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+39.5%+$19.74
All 12 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 16, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon be worth $500b before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$32.94
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+170.3%+$68.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Solana reach $300 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.35
Will Trump visit Russia in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.11
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$70
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$56.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.