Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2beb6918bff42cd269377fffeb7d458c1e18a06efa56097de608397dd8d640b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e8e…d302backed Yes | 32c | 28,538$9,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,132.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…111cbacked No | 68c | 28,527$19,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,128.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 10,255$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 17c | 6,189$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 19c | 4,409$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.83 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc217…7e88backed Yes | 14c | 4,397$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…7adbbacked Yes | 17c | 3,490$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 2,717$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…dd51backed Yes | 8c | 2,630$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 3c | 2,392$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,641$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.04 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,573$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 871.79$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 819.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 25c | 780.99$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 2c | 767.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 3c | 759.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 3c | 759.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…6eb4backed No | 79c | 750$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…a807backed Yes | 21c | 750$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 76c | 720$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 3c | 709.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 15c | 699.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 687.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 3c | 632.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 3c | 609.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 3c | 604.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 32c | 578.49$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 3c | 527.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 19c | 515.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes | 3c | 504.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…f45dbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 3c | 482.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 454.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 3c | 404.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…a632backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 3c | 354.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 336.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 14c | 328.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 75c | 243.01$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…78c1backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb8…25e6backed Yes | 35c | 217.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 68c | 189$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…9b15backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…1e3dbacked Yes | 28c | 174$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 76c | 142.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…e63abacked Yes | 13c | 111.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f553backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…555cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912b…9156backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 76c | 81.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf820…4204backed No | 73c | 77.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…0e3fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 48.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee3…ac8dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 30.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?this page
- Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025?No won
- Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?No won
- Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?No won
- Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.