TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$325,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc8e…c16abacked Yes43c25,899$11,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,136.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f2…0932backed No57c25,899$14,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,136.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes20c11,242$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.041414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes14c9,000$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,510$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8429913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x873b…dd51backed Yes16c8,274$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c7,626$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3880%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked No74c6,377$4,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3917…7adbbacked Yes19c6,307$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc217…7e88backed Yes16c5,755$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes18c5,081$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.84825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+94.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes48c4,942$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.53650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes8c4,400$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes30c3,954$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.1812049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes20c3,668$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.623522.9%8 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes12c3,146$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3801030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes18c2,762$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No78c2,754$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60511039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes26c2,675$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.64825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe92…d51abacked No73c2,584$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick30cpaid+27%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82a3…88d0backed Yes5c2,532$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes28c2,458$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.343525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes14c1,406$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.153713.5%5 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+1,104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No56c1,352$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.951637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5146…f45dbacked No58c1,196$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dec…be12backed Yes5c1,169$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5787…5a48backed Yes10c1,151$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+264.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+87.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…589abacked Yes12c1,000$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2333…7ebfbacked Yes2c930.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcde0…267dbacked Yes9c921.25$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes37c914.85$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x061e…8b82backed No57c877.87$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.87560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+104.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x419e…360abacked Yes2c811.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No72c750$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes38c700$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.6150%0 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaeb…a2a5backed Yes46c637.48$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7d…111cbacked Yes54c618$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes3c549.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes20c540.25$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes4c532.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked No50c527.9$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed No66c507.83$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c507.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.317528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed Yes49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82c…620abacked Yes4c491.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea7…9ffcbacked Yes3c483.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes47c462$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f2…c035backed Yes5c373.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes3c334$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f4…1e3dbacked Yes47c318.06$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ab…9c67backed Yes22c312.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…6654backed Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed No56c285.12$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked Yes36c275$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No63c265.12$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.496532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d98…daaebacked Yes10c260.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes23c229.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2840…8361backed No63c220.98$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ff…f74cbacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+240.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed Yes25c198.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.69450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…339fbacked No59c190$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+118%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ae1…8b1fbacked Yes19c172.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x991e…2362backed No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…3c8abacked Yes35c171.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ef…6d01backed No79c170.33$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+194.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b62…53bcbacked No66c169.54$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+360.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9891…b25abacked Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d71…af7abacked Yes20c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x06af…3741backed Yes31c149.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01da…56b3backed Yes7c143$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes40c142.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.142339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c98…a58bbacked No77c141.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+86.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f50…f7cdbacked Yes18c131.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7259…a6c4backed No77c130$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+93.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x841b…be2ebacked Yes17c130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No72c127.3$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.836827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x017f…7c54backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe67…06fcbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4786…1e50backed Yes10c121$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+88.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6082…79a7backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.52532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f13…5b36backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes23c96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c94.49$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5220242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf820…4204backed No56c89.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d0…dd3cbacked Yes12c87.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No55c85.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.642070%14 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes19c82.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.479144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.