TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6d71…af7a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 53 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.7
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.9
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$91.91
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US forces in Yemen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.01
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$285.37
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.17
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.4%+$43.32
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+41.6%+$15.53
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+57.3%+$59.85
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.26
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.13
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.31
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.05
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.38
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+44.7%+$15.4
All 19 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+51.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Twins vs. Tigersbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.48
Nationals vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+77.7%+$54.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy guilty of all charges?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Travis Hunter play offense and defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.