Us Politics · resolved market
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8df46cfef436bc7e3c4aadeacee7f3c16cbc67e44c6d17466aff60c65d67a56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $655,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $671,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $655,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3cb…d41ebacked No | 37c | 87,536$32,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,388.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…7e48backed Yes | 63c | 87,536$55,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,388.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…d003backed No | 27c | 73,628$19,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,879.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…190bbacked Yes | 73c | 73,609$53,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,874.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…a624backed No | 24c | 55,047$13,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,211.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…2af7backed Yes | 76c | 55,047$41,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,211.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 16c | 10,816$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.46 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 11c | 10,210$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.75 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked No | 13c | 7,730$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 15c | 7,124$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.1 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 17c | 7,083$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.63 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 20c | 6,466$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.45 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 79c | 5,575$4,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.59 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 15c | 3,876$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.8 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 14c | 3,622$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 76c | 3,145$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.28 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 75c | 2,916$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.47 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 72c | 2,359$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.7 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 73c | 2,354$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.94 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 17c | 1,650$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.68 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 17c | 1,435$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.89 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed No | 21c | 1,397$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 27c | 1,385$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.75 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…7e62backed No | 10c | 1,314$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 22c | 1,235$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.14 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 4c | 1,142$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…5dcdbacked No | 27c | 1,023$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f12…2d22backed No | 11c | 894.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…a780backed Yes | 79c | 869.97$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 75c | 850$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd8…8d25backed No | 16c | 727.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 16c | 718.07$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 8c | 670.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…cf17backed Yes | 77c | 648.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed No | 6c | 562$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…aaf5backed No | 18c | 556.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.3wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…73b7backed No | 4c | 547$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…2f74backed No | 18c | 523.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 24c | 522.03$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…aa97backed No | 7c | 519.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed Yes | 74c | 513.67$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…3817backed No | 20c | 476.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 19c | 474.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed No | 12c | 450.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 73c | 446.25$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 19c | 412$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yes | 74c | 364.74$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 15c | 345.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 10c | 342.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 9c | 340.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…8a0cbacked No | 17c | 339.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked Yes | 75c | 329.43$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5d…47d0backed No | 33c | 304.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 15c | 299.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 73c | 285.66$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…88fabacked Yes | 71c | 277.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 76c | 276.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8a…3082backed Yes | 69c | 251.52$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…171ebacked No | 25c | 251.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…2bb4backed Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 67c | 250$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1323…6008backed No | 13c | 240.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…d4d6backed Yes | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 11c | 237.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 70c | 230$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 19c | 222.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes | 67c | 220.26$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…4e9ebacked No | 19c | 214.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed No | 17c | 208.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 14c | 206.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…e377backed No | 15c | 201.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…46d6backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f2…aabcbacked No | 26c | 199.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ff…7beabacked No | 30c | 198.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 71c | 197.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 193.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…a037backed No | 15c | 189.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…c013backed Yes | 76c | 188.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed No | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…af7abacked No | 18c | 186.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…4e53backed No | 16c | 182.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed No | 12c | 177.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 9c | 168.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 69c | 168$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…3e16backed Yes | 77c | 167.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8a…870cbacked No | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 16c | 159$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 14c | 153.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 69c | 146.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 26c | 145.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7725…89bcbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ef…ac6dbacked No | 26c | 137.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 30c | 135.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…2d23backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aeb…d172backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fe…0c91backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.