Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Yemen in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77783da9b3549399a4bc0ba504f03c33f6cafca89f6ef5d96cb1d9492dfd22d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ac8…96d2backed Yes | 18c | 16,463$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 9c | 7,795$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…3e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,123$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 18c | 4,723$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.02 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 15c | 4,050$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.22 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,023$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,903$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,260$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,883$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +593.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…819fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,667$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 11c | 1,639$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 1,421$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,418$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 7c | 1,275$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,250$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.44 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 1,079$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…0b91backed Yes | 9c | 1,056$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +208.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 909.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 17c | 682.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 3c | 602.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…8aa7backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 518.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 11c | 511.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…dcf0backed Yes | 14c | 427.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…1fa5backed Yes | 12c | 400.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 386.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 369.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 10c | 354.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…2387backed Yes | 18c | 313.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7725…89bcbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 13c | 283.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 7c | 269.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…c85bbacked Yes | 8c | 246.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 8c | 238.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…07b4backed Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…5fb3backed Yes | 6c | 210.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c14…4b80backed Yes | 11c | 189.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…a3afbacked Yes | 6c | 187.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +242.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…af7abacked Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 8c | 148$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 10c | 133.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…ae0fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 34.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.