Middle East · resolved market
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1754bc54ec5b0af53339ad69d868bcdf5510242212a400db22bc865b103bbfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $679,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $783,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $679,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 8c | 273,438$21,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,428.31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,400$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 6,337$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.32 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 6,153$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.13 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…a3e0backed Yes | 21c | 6,065$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 5,017$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…44f4backed No | 73c | 4,813$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 4,385$3,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.37 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,808$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,635$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 22c | 3,225$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 77c | 2,810$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.84 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,605$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,325$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…f397backed Yes | 24c | 2,324$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 19c | 1,978$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.77 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…0000backed Yes | 26c | 1,936$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 13c | 1,866$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.57 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 22c | 1,809$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cce6backed Yes | 24c | 1,659$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6f37backed Yes | 11c | 1,650$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,616$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…29c6backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,415$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,298$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,231$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…fb9ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,160$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 11c | 1,126$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.01 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 23c | 1,092$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.49 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…0329backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.33 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…9343backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked No | 78c | 1,000$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 19c | 927.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 24c | 799.69$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed Yes | 6c | 798.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 790.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…392fbacked Yes | 14c | 770.21$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 760$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes | 13c | 748.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 15c | 724.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 16c | 665.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…4660backed Yes | 17c | 652$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 648.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 80c | 627.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.36 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 10c | 624.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 2c | 618.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 614$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 8c | 612.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 8c | 578.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 78c | 550$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 14c | 549.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…618fbacked No | 80c | 531.93$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…b879backed Yes | 21c | 508.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 2c | 495$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 490.67$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 488.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 80c | 484.28$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 12c | 436.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 78c | 419.18$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked Yes | 27c | 408.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…f24fbacked Yes | 12c | 399.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1533…48b6backed Yes | 26c | 387.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…3bccbacked No | 4c | 356.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,497.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…d481backed Yes | 29c | 341.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…f360backed Yes | 31c | 319.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 15c | 313$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…066bbacked Yes | 7c | 306.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…c9bfbacked Yes | 21c | 296.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 4c | 294.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…adc1backed Yes | 6c | 280.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 11c | 278.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 10c | 253.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…7c69backed Yes | 6c | 251.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 9c | 251.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…2e4dbacked Yes | 5c | 250.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…bc22backed No | 78c | 248.24$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 76c | 246.68$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eef…27f9backed No | 79c | 238.35$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 231$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 20c | 229.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…57e9backed Yes | 30c | 227.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 226.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 10c | 209.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…89adbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…8b9ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked Yes | 10c | 196.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 19c | 193.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 6c | 188.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 176.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…0b6cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa424…6bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 142.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.