Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d892486e700e4b7afb9b1726ce4697b0c3002bc086dca4bf1131c932788e920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,464,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,787,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,464,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 578 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 4c | 200,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,999.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 7c | 128,052$8,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,841.94 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…73fabacked Yes | 16c | 101,618$16,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,675.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…06fabacked Yes | 33c | 82,673$27,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,584.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 19c | 31,109$5,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,898.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 6c | 31,007$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.27 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 30,103$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.01 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 6c | 29,611$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.94 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 63c | 28,736$18,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,632.49 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 5c | 26,073$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.46 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…eebebacked Yes | 7c | 24,891$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 10c | 23,669$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.95 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 76c | 23,265$17,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,551 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…d47cbacked No | 78c | 20,759$16,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,536.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 76c | 20,128$15,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,760.56 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 7c | 16,075$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.95 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 7c | 16,068$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 31c | 15,165$4,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,682.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…893abacked Yes | 9c | 14,975$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 65c | 13,133$8,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,618.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 79c | 13,012$10,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775.79 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 67c | 12,964$8,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,246.72 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Yes | 40c | 11,640$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 17c | 10,610$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 36c | 10,225$3,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,667.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 10,030$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.3 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…76c1backed No | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 9,025$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 73c | 8,754$6,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.72 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 66c | 8,698$5,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975.02 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 14c | 8,291$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.64 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…24f9backed Yes | 15c | 7,830$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed No | 68c | 7,340$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 26c | 7,000$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 33c | 6,652$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.78 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 20c | 6,184$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 33c | 6,174$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 76c | 5,762$4,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes | 37c | 5,500$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…4e80backed Yes | 24c | 5,240$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 21c | 5,165$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.86 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…81f4backed Yes | 9c | 5,124$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 33c | 5,114$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.76 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,062$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…227ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,841$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 20c | 4,633$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 4,583$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.31 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…9030backed Yes | 23c | 4,430$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 30c | 4,419$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.55 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 4,351$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.64 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c680backed Yes | 36c | 4,163$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 73c | 4,072$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 79c | 4,050$3,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.99 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 34c | 4,031$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.24 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 67c | 4,000$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 4,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…bd5cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc66…554fbacked Yes | 35c | 3,969$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…f557backed Yes | 6c | 3,945$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 3,858$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 63c | 3,853$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.91 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…774ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,828$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,750$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,566$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…33d0backed Yes | 8c | 3,475$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 3,458$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.72 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…08b4backed Yes | 44c | 3,428$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 6c | 3,371$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 67c | 3,352$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.49 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c38…93b2backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 78c | 3,308$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.22 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a11…6ef0backed Yes | 2c | 3,278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd78…5df4backed Yes | 22c | 3,141$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…b6cebacked Yes | 21c | 3,137$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…b156backed Yes | 3c | 3,109$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…43afbacked Yes | 30c | 3,006$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 57c | 2,987$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed No | 63c | 2,956$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.02 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,842$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.06 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,831$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.6 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,748$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 2c | 2,735$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…e6fdbacked Yes | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 21c | 2,699$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.82 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…209ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,642$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…d5eebacked Yes | 17c | 2,630$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,525$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…48e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,520$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 2,450$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 25c | 2,444$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.65 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 24c | 2,384$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.75 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…61f2backed Yes | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 17c | 2,340$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 67c | 2,200$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.