TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,464,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,787,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,464,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 578 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes4c200,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34d2…75a8backed Yes7c128,052$8,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,841.942015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975a…73fabacked Yes16c101,618$16,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,675.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x738d…06fabacked Yes33c82,673$27,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,584.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes19c31,109$5,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,898.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes6c31,007$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.27254%1 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes2c30,103$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.0143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes6c29,611$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.9413823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No63c28,736$18,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,632.494650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes5c26,073$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.468617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0fd…eebebacked Yes7c24,891$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes10c23,669$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.9510634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No76c23,265$17,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5514045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d02…d47cbacked No78c20,759$16,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,536.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No76c20,128$15,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,760.563943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes7c16,075$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.958450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes7c16,068$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes31c15,165$4,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,682.142450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…893abacked Yes9c14,975$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed No65c13,133$8,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,618.511361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No79c13,012$10,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.797542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No67c12,964$8,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,246.7210150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Yes40c11,640$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes17c10,610$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes36c10,225$3,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,667.091931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes7c10,030$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.37610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9885…210ebacked Yes7c10,000$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234d…76c1backed No60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0002100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c9,025$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.411879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No73c8,754$6,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.7217530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No66c8,698$5,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.0213850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes14c8,291$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.64649.4%6 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa472…24f9backed Yes15c7,830$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7f…b1d4backed No68c7,340$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.111241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes26c7,000$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8104231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes33c6,652$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.784944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9389…aaffbacked Yes20c6,184$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.79110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes33c6,174$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0092634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No76c5,762$4,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37513629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes37c5,500$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…4e80backed Yes24c5,240$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.891136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes21c5,165$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.868739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa7…81f4backed Yes9c5,124$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes33c5,114$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.766134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c5,062$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.922078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd572…227ebacked Yes8c4,841$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes20c4,633$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.57425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c4,583$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.3189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x807b…9030backed Yes23c4,430$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes30c4,419$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.553033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c4,351$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.6467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5714…c680backed Yes36c4,163$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.252544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No73c4,072$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.681546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No79c4,050$3,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.9937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes34c4,031$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.244835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3205745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes10c4,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38056336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes20c4,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7803116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes5c4,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed Yes11c4,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…bd5cbacked Yes16c4,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc66…554fbacked Yes35c3,969$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22b…f557backed Yes6c3,945$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c3,858$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No63c3,853$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.9121259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa022…774ebacked Yes36c3,828$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes14c3,750$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5414010%4 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked Yes28c3,566$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f13…33d0backed Yes8c3,475$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes14c3,458$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.7242120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x833e…08b4backed Yes44c3,428$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes6c3,371$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.25119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-80.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd063…5ccdbacked No67c3,352$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.492378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+137.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3c38…93b2backed Yes1c3,333$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No78c3,308$2,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.222748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a11…6ef0backed Yes2c3,278$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+163.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd78…5df4backed Yes22c3,141$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf05…b6cebacked Yes21c3,137$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.35520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaece…b156backed Yes3c3,109$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x822a…43afbacked Yes30c3,006$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1703050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No57c2,987$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.441770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb753…f859backed No63c2,956$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.022536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes22c2,842$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.067323.3%17 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes25c2,831$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.64156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes7c2,748$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-87.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes2c2,735$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.62711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c5b…e6fdbacked Yes37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes21c2,699$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.823315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked Yes19c2,642$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fe…d5eebacked Yes17c2,630$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x279c…35cfbacked Yes8c2,525$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202336.1%2 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b6d…48e5backed Yes4c2,520$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes6c2,450$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.793116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes25c2,444$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.653030%9 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes24c2,384$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.75439.3%4 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf9…61f2backed Yes42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes17c2,340$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.7360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No67c2,200$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.