Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc15a24d1576b84a0ae8896d2e2f89d33cf2ab84e20c358269945725204ba2442

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,479,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,503,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,479,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,692 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x203a…0f61backed Yes	40c	324,179$129,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129,999	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4976…d25cbacked Yes	34c	275,135$93,905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93,905.04	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	47c	198,807$92,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92,806.63	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d83…4888backed Yes	36c	187,445$67,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67,033.58	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6435…9348backed Yes	25c	155,328$38,486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38,485.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes	17c	153,054$25,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,634.13	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c53…3c12backed Yes	21c	152,412$32,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32,740.73	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0074…a9e8backed Yes	49c	143,743$70,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70,104.07	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes	52c	128,394$66,744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66,744.11	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No	74c	122,951$90,767 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32,183.84	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+6.3wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0584…de3ebacked Yes	54c	105,362$56,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56,450	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d09…e998backed Yes	39c	87,384$33,946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33,946.19	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4db6…9842backed Yes	0c	79,133$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No	59c	77,421$45,562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,859.59	93	34.4%32 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	59c	60,233$35,576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,656.65	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	41c	59,562$24,631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,631.37	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No	60c	58,593$35,282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,310.34	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf60c…d290backed Yes	44c	58,313$25,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,448.63	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Yes	37c	54,994$20,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,100.69	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8147…4fbfbacked Yes	56c	53,551$29,939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,938.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	66c	53,412$35,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,896.38	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed Yes	48c	53,348$25,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,760.98	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes	4c	50,545$1,804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,803.53	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…8c55backed Yes	0c	48,423$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No	57c	46,802$26,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,161.49	101	27.7%28 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1983…2b4ebacked Yes	23c	45,570$10,365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,364.63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No	45c	43,717$19,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,066.84	133	34.6%46 W · 87 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa56…f232backed Yes	40c	43,663$17,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,372	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6687…f814backed Yes	26c	40,664$10,691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,691.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6573…0ed0backed Yes	38c	39,940$14,988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,987.96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes	10c	39,627$4,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,025.41	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	25c	38,802$9,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,801.98	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked Yes	14c	35,935$5,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,022.74	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+4.2wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes	29c	32,936$9,595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,595.19	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…6638backed Yes	38c	30,823$11,704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,704.3	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No	55c	30,446$16,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,695.82	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…f175backed No	57c	25,990$14,886 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,103.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	1c	24,014$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.63	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe613…2b34backed Yes	33c	23,952$7,945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,944.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-51%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986a…a1b6backed Yes	41c	23,718$9,613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,612.87	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No	68c	23,549$16,099 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,450.41	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes	7c	22,000$1,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457.5	196	23%45 W · 151 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes	56c	22,000$12,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,279.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb33…6be7backed Yes	46c	21,421$9,890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,890	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3445…7488backed Yes	38c	21,358$8,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,126.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b6…3f65backed Yes	41c	21,233$8,799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,799	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No	79c	21,079$16,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,370.37	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	7c	20,604$1,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,479.22	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	-7.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes	55c	20,245$11,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,226.32	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No	47c	20,000$9,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,599.91	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7c…2b74backed Yes	53c	19,763$10,385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,384.95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e0…3cb6backed Yes	36c	19,370$6,995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,994.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Yes	56c	18,965$10,695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,695.14	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked No	77c	18,781$14,402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,379.59	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1273…3582backed Yes	35c	18,427$6,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,455.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5189…7320backed Yes	36c	17,589$6,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,250.8	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No	59c	16,000$9,392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,607.49	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed Yes	26c	15,574$4,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,006.15	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed Yes	36c	15,218$5,543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,543.02	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	64c	15,187$9,669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,518.8	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc92c…daa7backed Yes	44c	14,582$6,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,468.72	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a64…c00abacked Yes	36c	14,467$5,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,195.49	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d46…6233backed No	45c	14,336$6,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,884.64	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+2.5wins	+0.49per pick	31cpaid	+123.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1970…74b1backed Yes	47c	14,075$6,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,593.23	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8212…8ad8backed Yes	34c	14,001$4,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,718.66	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes	51c	13,905$7,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,160.89	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9590…8631backed Yes	34c	13,473$4,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,560.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes	18c	13,469$2,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,431.5	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes	54c	12,917$7,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,000.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes	45c	12,263$5,567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,567.15	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc661…610abacked Yes	29c	12,183$3,495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,494.67	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9f…5972backed Yes	34c	11,640$4,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,014.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2666…d969backed Yes	31c	11,329$3,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,545.98	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	21cpaid	+452.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe088…a4ebbacked Yes	14c	11,091$1,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,498.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No	49c	10,974$5,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,629.54	105	33.3%35 W · 70 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes	37c	10,909$4,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,041.24	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-5.6wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe09c…a769backed Yes	40c	10,855$4,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,332.17	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdad1…8b6bbacked Yes	41c	10,777$4,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,394.97	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes	6c	10,716$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.76	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…886bbacked Yes	2c	10,506$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.43	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72e1…7d89backed Yes	62c	10,381$6,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,433.29	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes	42c	10,159$4,261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,261.08	284	30.3%86 W · 198 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Yes	55c	10,000$5,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,499.99	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No	58c	10,000$5,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,199.96	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4d…0d7dbacked Yes	51c	9,554$4,837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,837.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…3acbbacked No	46c	9,458$4,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,069.24	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	38cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No	54c	9,415$5,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,366.09	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes	36c	9,168$3,342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,342.25	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes	29c	9,065$2,643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,643.15	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa251…f703backed Yes	56c	9,010$5,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,005.53	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	62cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ea…3ea8backed No	53c	8,811$4,707 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,104.15	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes	1c	8,805$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff11…add9backed Yes	57c	8,792$4,997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,997.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes	42c	8,461$3,554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,554.17	143	30.8%44 W · 99 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	48c	8,221$3,940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,939.61	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes	44c	7,933$3,488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,487.52	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0efd…1567backed Yes	33c	7,868$2,582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,582	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No	69c	7,783$5,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,412.65	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes	31c	7,620$2,354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,354.42	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No	69c	7,540$5,219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,321.27	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	60cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event