Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd2a9763130a22703be994ec8667689d208a9020c90051bd4567dace433cd5fc

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $500,979
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $180,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,979 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaacb…d3ffbacked Yes	0c	118,000$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbd…f725backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes	2c	9,112$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	8,772$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.59	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes	1c	6,894$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.39	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	6,584$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x630e…2f2fbacked Yes	4c	6,032$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x465e…a4e2backed Yes	2c	5,710$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	5,631$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.81	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes	3c	4,542$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.55	50	46%23 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	4c	3,997$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.74	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa11…f753backed Yes	2c	3,353$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.16	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea6…7e97backed Yes	2c	3,346$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d09…49b9backed Yes	0c	2,681$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+2,857%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6e…543bbacked Yes	4c	2,135$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,928$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.09	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb15…2caebacked Yes	3c	1,711$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.7	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e70…e7b8backed Yes	6c	1,615$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes	1c	1,609$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	134	13.4%18 W · 116 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ba…a5bebacked Yes	2c	1,169$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes	1c	999.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes	4c	943.03$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.19	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+1,487.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	2c	923.85$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219e…09cbbacked Yes	3c	497$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	3c	435.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	278	28.1%78 W · 200 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5f…57cbbacked Yes	5c	428.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb21c…673cbacked Yes	5c	216.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf4…bda9backed Yes	7c	204$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d1…ce59backed Yes	7c	165$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event