Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe69cc8ea34c39501e9dcc7dd99212cb4533515d42e154e9fda136e0a3861c5aa

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $507,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $301,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,901 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb62…dfb1backed Yes	0c	37,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81d1…3f42backed Yes	2c	36,015$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes	1c	29,697$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.06	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	20,314$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.64	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1423…047bbacked Yes	0c	19,500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20c7…50c9backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes	0c	13,162$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+1,305.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes	1c	11,958$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	+7,883.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe9…c950backed Yes	0c	10,742$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	0c	10,522$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.61	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0acb…5704backed Yes	3c	10,519$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	6,384$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a44…97babacked Yes	2c	6,304$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…36e2backed Yes	1c	4,899$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.37	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe4bc…2f55backed Yes	3c	4,495$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc44…0f1dbacked Yes	3c	3,917$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	2c	3,735$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.58	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecf9…22fcbacked Yes	0c	3,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	1c	2,878$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ac…4310backed Yes	1c	2,769$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,668$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.66	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eea…33acbacked Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	2,163$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.18	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes	1c	1,802$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	3c	1,626$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.94	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68e9…05afbacked Yes	2c	1,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	1c	1,419$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc605…332abacked Yes	2c	1,248$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x268b…024fbacked Yes	2c	1,186$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes	8c	1,134$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.02	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e51…a090backed Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Yes	2c	1,024$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes	1c	999.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+417.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6848…1c75backed Yes	1c	837$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea1…7350backed Yes	3c	717.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	3c	599.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	175	24.6%43 W · 132 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f76…95a1backed Yes	2c	420.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	134	13.4%18 W · 116 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes	6c	248.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event