Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a64f75a5d7107e53e7c3eaf52865624a0c79ad8c41379faef4285494991326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $958,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $973,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $958,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 435 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 65c | 79,210$51,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,799.72 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…cf9abacked No | 43c | 42,376$18,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,221.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…d495backed Yes | 57c | 42,376$24,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,221.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 41c | 36,862$15,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,254.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…d451backed Yes | 56c | 36,291$20,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,968.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…d45fbacked No | 44c | 36,291$15,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,968.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…adb0backed No | 39c | 34,075$13,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,289.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9537…dc8fbacked Yes | 61c | 34,075$20,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,289.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…57d4backed Yes | 51c | 31,856$16,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,609.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…5487backed No | 49c | 31,856$15,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,609.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b99ebacked Yes | 44c | 30,109$13,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,861.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…f46cbacked No | 56c | 30,109$16,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,861.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 44c | 25,210$11,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,151.19 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 27c | 20,099$5,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,352.87 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 30c | 18,301$5,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,442.32 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 43c | 12,572$5,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.02 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 36c | 10,971$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,959.92 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 60c | 10,762$6,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8bc8backed No | 35c | 9,757$3,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.67 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…8a48backed No | 50c | 9,290$4,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,618.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…1e3ebacked Yes | 66c | 9,086$5,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,094.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 61c | 8,900$5,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.48 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 8,550$3,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,860.73 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…7e60backed No | 11c | 8,478$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 47c | 7,327$3,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,444.06 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 66c | 7,225$4,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.58 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 37c | 6,753$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.23 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…8d0bbacked No | 40c | 6,387$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 40c | 6,233$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.4 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 14c | 5,795$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 61c | 5,648$3,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.93 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 20c | 5,543$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.46 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…f277backed Yes | 71c | 5,542$3,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 21c | 5,402$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.83 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 57c | 5,323$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.78 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 19c | 5,200$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 46c | 5,054$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.02 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 46c | 4,931$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.51 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 62c | 4,915$3,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.45 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 59c | 4,895$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.49 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 13c | 4,834$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 13c | 4,315$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 42c | 4,286$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed No | 12c | 4,252$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 38c | 4,238$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.62 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 23c | 4,100$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 44c | 4,093$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.36 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 23c | 4,000$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…3baabacked Yes | 62c | 3,614$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 59c | 3,333$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 15c | 3,217$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 25c | 3,078$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.04 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 6c | 3,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 14c | 3,000$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.93 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 58c | 2,876$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…b363backed Yes | 62c | 2,748$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…2891backed No | 44c | 2,700$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 54c | 2,697$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.77 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 63c | 2,606$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.34 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf252…8208backed Yes | 75c | 2,505$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 22c | 2,481$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.79 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 58c | 2,450$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 42c | 2,450$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…02bdbacked Yes | 66c | 2,408$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 56c | 2,205$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.22 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…c09bbacked No | 18c | 2,194$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…7336backed Yes | 52c | 2,110$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed No | 33c | 2,098$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102e…1793backed No | 10c | 2,077$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e0…b992backed Yes | 58c | 2,030$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 37c | 2,022$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 50c | 2,014$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 49c | 2,000$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.95 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 45c | 1,960$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.4 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 77c | 1,873$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.5 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 69c | 1,863$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.89 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed No | 17c | 1,830$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 41c | 1,816$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.97 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…8f68backed No | 45c | 1,810$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…14a7backed No | 6c | 1,800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,773$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.93 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf563…a9e1backed Yes | 58c | 1,710$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…ee39backed Yes | 58c | 1,618$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 21c | 1,592$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.68 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 34c | 1,591$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.29 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…01d6backed Yes | 58c | 1,581$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca3…d3c8backed No | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,459$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.59 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 9c | 1,382$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 77c | 1,378$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 52c | 1,374$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…6685backed Yes | 58c | 1,370$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 48c | 1,352$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.92 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 1,334$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.97 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 65c | 1,330$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…8c9bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,307$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.36 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.