Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba0e12a339b01159f86cd697890e24ab2a25749cdaa8beb6a1a744fb4a93610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,797,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,833,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,797,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 686 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 27c | 71,496$19,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,956.65 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75c…2159backed No | 75c | 61,173$45,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,809.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed No | 0c | 45,294$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 71c | 32,843$23,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,168.33 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 71c | 32,732$23,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,275.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 59c | 32,173$19,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,007.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 30c | 31,960$9,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,483.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…c24fbacked Yes | 14c | 31,910$4,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,336.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 63c | 29,533$18,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,841.91 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 35c | 29,364$10,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,084.72 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 34c | 28,848$9,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,005.39 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 71c | 28,484$20,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,266.8 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 33c | 27,638$8,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,655.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 28c | 27,325$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,725.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 26,391$6,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,010.3 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked No | 47c | 25,494$12,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,021.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 59c | 24,627$14,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,567.1 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…287cbacked Yes | 58c | 23,889$13,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,989.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 58c | 21,959$12,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,747.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 69c | 21,729$14,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,906.86 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abc…8163backed Yes | 23c | 21,207$4,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,359.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 64c | 21,076$13,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,486.79 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…cc73backed No | 55c | 19,141$10,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,528.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 53c | 18,612$9,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,788.17 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 31c | 18,211$5,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,628.64 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ada…861abacked No | 1c | 18,011$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…723abacked Yes | 17c | 17,388$3,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,378.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed No | 36c | 17,189$6,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…a91fbacked Yes | 25c | 16,871$4,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,575.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 76c | 16,114$12,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,243.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 19c | 15,215$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,307.43 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…6924backed Yes | 64c | 14,641$9,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,221.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 55c | 14,512$8,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,046.54 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed Yes | 47c | 14,210$6,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,542.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 69c | 12,750$8,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,779.39 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 22c | 12,717$2,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,918.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 53c | 12,525$6,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,607.29 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 32c | 12,514$3,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,554.99 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 64c | 12,242$7,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,852.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed No | 53c | 12,242$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 21c | 11,880$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,343.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 77c | 11,718$9,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,073.87 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 46c | 10,694$4,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,885.04 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 49c | 10,452$5,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,312.91 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 10,334$7,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,770.92 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 35c | 9,900$3,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,490.96 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…3481backed Yes | 22c | 9,863$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,662.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 26c | 9,733$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,167.21 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 16c | 9,179$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,679.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 64c | 8,949$5,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,752.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…8a73backed Yes | 66c | 8,912$5,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 20c | 8,882$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,145.63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 16c | 8,113$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,844.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 61c | 7,742$4,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,688.76 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…b402backed Yes | 43c | 7,552$3,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,287.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +160.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 53c | 7,447$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979.54 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 28c | 7,376$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,308.93 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 22c | 7,367$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,745.81 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…2722backed No | 74c | 7,000$5,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,179.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 49c | 6,961$3,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375.95 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…1f51backed Yes | 12c | 6,475$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,699.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes | 39c | 6,434$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,909.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed No | 72c | 6,324$4,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,538.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…6d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,995$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,994.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 42c | 5,909$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.06 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 29c | 5,602$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 66c | 5,470$3,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588.29 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 18c | 5,338$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.78 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 34c | 5,258$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445.49 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…adecbacked Yes | 29c | 5,251$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,748.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 50c | 5,226$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 50c | 4,910$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 26c | 4,864$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,615.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 62c | 4,766$2,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,971.38 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 46c | 4,640$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked No | 52c | 4,612$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes | 29c | 4,599$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,272.16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 49c | 4,576$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.13 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 4,535$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.65 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 23c | 4,508$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,477.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 28c | 4,426$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.07 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 58c | 4,349$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,518.53 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 71c | 4,251$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.98 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 25c | 4,037$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,037.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 60c | 4,033$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.72 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 20c | 4,030$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.96 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 58c | 4,020$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.47 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…b661backed No | 67c | 4,009$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.99 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 54c | 3,800$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 21c | 3,784$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,991.15 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 25c | 3,761$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.28 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…880bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,739$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 60c | 3,635$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.06 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…3b09backed Yes | 31c | 3,626$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 40c | 3,523$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.96 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…5e21backed Yes | 26c | 3,466$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed No | 69c | 3,453$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae73…66d7backed Yes | 34c | 3,327$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.