Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb303fceda7906a905f697c1f9eac462da9cd8c9b1a8d18898363437a7be31561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $577,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $568,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 38,703$4,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,830.65 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 68c | 23,964$16,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,598.51 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 8c | 23,246$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.13 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 8c | 20,131$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.87 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 10c | 17,364$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.33 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 8c | 12,555$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.09 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…1e3ebacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 75c | 8,077$6,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.98 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 5c | 7,738$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.81 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,583$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…7dbbbacked Yes | 7c | 7,417$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 76c | 7,239$5,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.26 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 7,097$5,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.76 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…2edcbacked Yes | 3c | 6,917$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 13c | 6,253$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.71 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked Yes | 8c | 6,003$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 23c | 5,948$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.44 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,902$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 35c | 5,271$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 9c | 5,100$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 8c | 5,007$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.33 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…7336backed Yes | 33c | 3,927$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 5c | 3,882$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed Yes | 38c | 3,844$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 3,824$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 79c | 3,692$2,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.97 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 3c | 3,649$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 64c | 3,198$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.41 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 2,990$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.03 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 61c | 2,987$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.48 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 63c | 2,852$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.41 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…3332backed Yes | 50c | 2,808$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed Yes | 18c | 2,585$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 73c | 2,460$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 55c | 2,450$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.98 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,350$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,308$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 2,204$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…1364backed Yes | 2c | 2,185$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 38c | 2,183$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 1,909$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,897$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 67c | 1,759$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.52 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,756$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,730$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…1427backed Yes | 45c | 1,695$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 1,600$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 11c | 1,504$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…3911backed No | 76c | 1,427$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,352$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…57d5backed No | 78c | 1,303$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 1,268$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.45 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…dbcabacked Yes | 50c | 1,224$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.53 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,203$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…c862backed Yes | 13c | 1,160$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,138$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,077$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 60c | 1,072$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.88 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…93ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,035$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…2817backed Yes | 10c | 1,028$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 63c | 959.52$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.52 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 2c | 896.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 7c | 871.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 30c | 834$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…c0e1backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…c24fbacked Yes | 12c | 825.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…4e26backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7f…9151backed Yes | 14c | 696.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1036backed Yes | 38c | 678.67$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…198fbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 14c | 650.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…9b7abacked Yes | 20c | 650$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…21debacked Yes | 11c | 643.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked No | 78c | 640.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f4…5228backed Yes | 52c | 601.04$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed No | 78c | 579.2$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 13c | 573.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 33c | 550$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…906fbacked Yes | 3c | 525$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed Yes | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 40c | 485.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 21c | 479.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…8a7cbacked Yes | 49c | 449.52$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 8c | 416.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 5c | 393.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…9d60backed No | 65c | 392.56$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…7c86backed Yes | 52c | 386.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 67c | 385.56$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 46c | 385.09$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.14 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.