Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47060475422f8a1e485943909a8e437fc3342bd90810e10f9f0a5376362a761d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $405,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $435,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 31c | 26,701$8,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,408.26 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 35c | 18,344$6,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,333.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 39c | 17,967$7,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,064.84 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 59c | 15,945$9,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,564.2 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 45c | 15,804$7,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,043.4 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 50c | 15,493$7,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,695.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 54c | 15,444$8,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,099.52 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 76c | 14,843$11,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534.83 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 35c | 12,500$4,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,420 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 72c | 12,102$8,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441.94 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 31c | 11,193$3,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,427.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 34c | 11,000$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 54c | 10,356$5,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,750.18 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 39c | 9,247$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed Yes | 60c | 7,808$4,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,097.06 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 35c | 6,957$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.89 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 23c | 6,221$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.22 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 68c | 6,126$4,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.68 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 61c | 5,737$3,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.99 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 24c | 5,621$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.31 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2abc…8163backed Yes | 66c | 5,417$3,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 13c | 5,132$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.03 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 65c | 5,028$3,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.73 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…98e1backed Yes | 55c | 4,801$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 48c | 4,443$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310.23 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 31c | 3,922$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 59c | 3,839$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.64 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 53c | 3,779$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 42c | 3,532$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.95 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 64c | 3,264$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.94 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed No | 47c | 3,038$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8bc8backed No | 36c | 2,514$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.53 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 50c | 2,478$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…a517backed No | 66c | 2,379$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 24c | 2,358$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 65c | 2,343$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.43 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 78c | 2,180$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.35 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 10c | 2,147$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed No | 15c | 2,128$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…6d4ebacked Yes | 60c | 2,043$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 74c | 2,005$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 39c | 1,884$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.39 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 68c | 1,876$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.11 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 76c | 1,823$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 57c | 1,750$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…bc73backed No | 61c | 1,726$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…8a73backed Yes | 76c | 1,687$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 51c | 1,572$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.35 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 61c | 1,565$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.35 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,552$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.92 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 1,502$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 57c | 1,425$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes | 71c | 1,302$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked Yes | 73c | 1,256$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1912backed Yes | 58c | 1,214$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.17 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 36c | 1,196$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.47 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 70c | 1,166$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.03 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 60c | 1,151$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.33 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 73c | 1,102$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.04 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…2891backed No | 69c | 1,100$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 52c | 1,083$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.31 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 18c | 1,083$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 47c | 1,075$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 31c | 1,070$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.31 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 26c | 1,011$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.87 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 74c | 999.99$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 60c | 908$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.31 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 57c | 899.99$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…d44bbacked Yes | 60c | 865.58$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed Yes | 67c | 850$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 846$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 69c | 836.45$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.91 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 44c | 825.01$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.21 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 16c | 823.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 69c | 800$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…e99dbacked No | 13c | 764.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 61c | 746.38$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.14 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…b134backed No | 42c | 741.95$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No | 18c | 740.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.46 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 33c | 738.17$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.83 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 50c | 733$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.23 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 23c | 731.5$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 706.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…dbfabacked Yes | 69c | 703.99$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 56c | 703$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 67c | 700$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 41c | 700$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 58c | 699.98$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed No | 16c | 678.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 68c | 660.04$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…cb5fbacked Yes | 73c | 634.43$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 66c | 607.39$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 35c | 601.64$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.