Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49686d26fb712515cd5e12c23f0a1c7e10214c7faa3cb0a730aabe0c33694082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,563,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,610,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,563,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 977 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa53c…563bbacked No | 53c | 43,205$22,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,898.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…dbf3backed Yes | 47c | 43,205$20,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,898.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…d451backed Yes | 53c | 41,422$21,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,468.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…a8c3backed No | 47c | 41,422$19,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,468.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…f22cbacked Yes | 45c | 38,767$17,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,321.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…53cfbacked No | 55c | 38,767$21,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,321.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…0c89backed No | 46c | 36,134$16,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,621.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…75f7backed Yes | 54c | 36,134$19,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,621.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6eb…1d57backed Yes | 52c | 30,922$16,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,842.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…a36dbacked No | 48c | 30,922$14,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,842.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…2af9backed Yes | 43c | 30,712$13,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,505.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…e989backed No | 57c | 30,712$17,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,505.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…5dd5backed No | 60c | 30,120$18,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,072 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…6a94backed Yes | 40c | 30,120$12,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,072 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…3565backed No | 27c | 27,600$7,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,452 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…32a8backed No | 53c | 27,322$14,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,480.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b99ebacked Yes | 47c | 27,322$12,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,480.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…08aabacked No | 48c | 27,231$13,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,070.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…49b7backed Yes | 52c | 27,231$14,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,070.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…47bdbacked No | 18c | 23,316$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…d0e3backed No | 11c | 23,089$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb35…888bbacked No | 15c | 22,547$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,319.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…a4a4backed No | 14c | 22,130$3,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,041.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…7ff7backed No | 13c | 21,063$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523b…c8b1backed No | 13c | 20,911$2,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,763.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be1…60c9backed No | 14c | 20,557$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…fbd1backed No | 9c | 19,322$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…985cbacked No | 13c | 19,030$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…f6eabacked No | 10c | 18,536$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a0…ab58backed No | 13c | 17,685$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…e3abbacked No | 13c | 17,526$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…1dc9backed No | 6c | 17,432$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…b84cbacked No | 25c | 17,300$4,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,269 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…5dd1backed No | 12c | 17,282$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…963bbacked No | 9c | 17,135$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…62babacked No | 14c | 17,088$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…008bbacked No | 14c | 17,078$2,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…4b3abacked No | 14c | 17,054$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…59a2backed No | 10c | 16,970$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…4726backed No | 6c | 16,952$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…ef8fbacked No | 14c | 16,925$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,335.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…c7bcbacked No | 10c | 16,784$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…278ebacked No | 13c | 16,691$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…f34ebacked No | 13c | 16,684$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…9d70backed No | 11c | 16,631$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…6ccebacked No | 12c | 16,608$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…a9ffbacked No | 11c | 16,608$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…1d75backed No | 13c | 16,424$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86a…acdbbacked No | 9c | 16,381$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…fb23backed No | 13c | 16,332$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…043abacked No | 12c | 16,220$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…b513backed No | 8c | 16,134$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…fe54backed No | 13c | 16,072$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7edcbacked No | 10c | 16,060$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…68acbacked No | 11c | 15,680$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…8a30backed No | 12c | 15,552$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f6…d206backed No | 10c | 14,360$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…6f4cbacked No | 10c | 14,295$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…c879backed No | 10c | 13,861$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…02d0backed No | 10c | 13,697$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d53…060cbacked No | 15c | 13,513$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…4805backed No | 9c | 13,503$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b834backed No | 11c | 13,497$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9505…a4c9backed No | 12c | 13,244$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…1161backed No | 13c | 12,867$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a7…7a10backed No | 12c | 12,837$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…de16backed No | 10c | 12,824$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…3228backed No | 14c | 12,802$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c5…67e6backed No | 11c | 12,593$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…e148backed No | 15c | 12,560$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 67c | 11,386$7,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…65b0backed No | 14c | 11,360$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f97…7c07backed No | 12c | 10,485$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…1827backed No | 12c | 10,468$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e4…91d3backed No | 10c | 10,466$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…4d11backed No | 7c | 10,446$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0014…598dbacked No | 12c | 10,255$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9f95backed No | 14c | 10,215$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d0…76b0backed No | 13c | 10,178$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 70c | 10,155$7,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,996.27 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…3634backed No | 14c | 9,964$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a82…5076backed Yes | 73c | 9,600$7,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6085…4880backed No | 14c | 9,576$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…7566backed No | 10c | 9,562$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…d29fbacked No | 13c | 9,530$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…d3dcbacked No | 11c | 9,497$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…75b8backed No | 10c | 9,423$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…ae08backed No | 15c | 9,369$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…3681backed No | 12c | 9,297$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e3…6144backed Yes | 61c | 9,267$5,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,601.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…9cb4backed No | 14c | 9,262$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e8…4928backed No | 10c | 9,258$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc12…fe28backed No | 13c | 9,253$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…2cabbacked No | 15c | 9,244$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…d81dbacked No | 14c | 9,242$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…45e5backed No | 14c | 9,233$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…c223backed Yes | 73c | 9,200$6,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…8217backed No | 10c | 9,174$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df3…f411backed No | 10c | 9,153$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…4347backed No | 10c | 9,153$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?this page
- Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?No won
- Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?No won
- Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport less than 250,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.